Small Changes in Costs, Prices Move March DMC Margin Above $9.50 Trigger

The DMC margin rose by $0.21/cwt from February to March to $9.65/cwt, putting it just above the maximum $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level. The March All-Milk price rose by $0.10/cwt to $20.70/cwt, and the March DMC feed cost calculation dropped by $0.11/cwt, almost entirely on a $7.00/ton lower premium alfalfa hay price.

The DMC Decision Tool on the USDA/FSA website forecasts that the DMC margin will remain above $9.50/cwt for the rest of 2024. The enrollment period for the 2024 Dairy Margin Program ended on Tuesday. For those who are signed up for 2024 coverage, payments will be made for January’s and February’s triggered payments, depending on coverage level.

February DMC Margin Gains Nearly $1/cwt Over January

The February margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program rose by $0.96/cwt from a month earlier to $9.44/cwt, triggering a payment of $0.06/cwt for coverage at the $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 level.

The rise was due to a $0.50/cwt increase in the February U.S. average all-milk price to $20.60/cwt, and a $0.46/cwt drop in the DMC feed cost formula, mostly as a result of lower corn prices.

Futures-based forecasts at the end of March indicated that DMC margins would remain mostly above the $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level during the remainder of the current calendar year, with possible brief dips below this level in late spring.

January DMC Margin Inches Up Just Four Cents Over December

The January Dairy Margin Coverage program margin remained mired below the $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level, gaining just 4 cents over December to come in at $8.48/cwt and generating a payment of $1.02/cwt for that maximum coverage.

The national average All-milk price in January dropped $0.50/cwt from December to $20.10/cwt, while a $0.54/cwt drop in the DMC feed cost calculation offset that decline to result in the margin’s small improvement. The feed-cost decline was mostly driven mostly by a falling soybean meal price, assisted by slightly lower corn and premium alfalfa hay prices.

End-of-February futures-based forecasts indicated that DMC margins would remain mostly above the $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level for the rest of 2024.

NMPF’s Galen Urges DMC Signup

NMPF Senior Vice President Chris Galen detailed improvements to the Dairy Margin Coverage program in an interview with the National Association of Farm Broadcasters. “We encourage people to look at the dairy margin coverage program if they’re not already covered or to make adjustments in their coverage levels, because you don’t know what’s going to happen with either milk prices or feed costs,” he said.

NMPF’S Galen Discusses DMC Signup, Impact of Government Shutdown on Farm Bill

NMPF’s Senior Vice President Chris Galen explains to Dairy Radio Now listeners the importance of using the Dairy Margin Coverage program, now that signup for 2024 is open until April 29.  He also predicts what will happen with a looming government shutdown, and how that could impact prospects for the next Farm Bill.

NMPF Urges DMC Signup as USDA Announces Enrollment

Statement from NMPF President & CEO Gregg Doud:

“Dairy farmers are pleased to finally have the certainty of knowing when the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program signup is beginning, and NMPF urges every dairy farmer to strongly consider signing up. DMC itself is improved from the previous farm bill, thanks to the permanent incorporation of updated production histories in the program, and recent low producer margins underscore just how critical DMC is for dairy farms of all sizes. We thank Congress for making this important change and are grateful for USDA’s work in rolling out this updated program for farmers.

“NMPF is eager to assist producers in any way they can with this program. We also look forward to working to ensure that farmers receive what they need even more – a new farm bill that provides certainty for the next several years, and not just 2024.”

USDA announced today that the 2024 Dairy Margin Coverage sign-up will open Feb. 28 and run through April 29. For more NMPF resources related to the DMC program and other federally backed risk management programs, visit here.

NMPF’s Vitaliano Offers 2024 Dairy Economic Outlook

 

NMPF’s Vice President of Economic Policy Peter Vitaliano provides Dairy Radio Now listeners a look ahead at what farm-level milk prices will do in 2024. Farmers should benefit from lower feed costs, and with milk production expected to remain stagnant again this year, prices should gradually improve.

December DMC Margin Reverses Trend, Drops to $8.44/cwt

The December margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program bucked the trend that began in August of improving milk prices and margins, sliding $1.14/cwt to $8.44/cwt and matching the margin last seen in September. The renewed weakness was due almost entirely to a $1.10/cwt fall in the December all-milk price from November. The December DMC feed cost rose by 4 cents a hundredweight to $12.16/cwt of milk, with higher corn and premium alfalfa hay prices almost offset by a lower soybean meal price.

The average margin for all months of 2023 was $6.70/cwt, effectively tying last year with 2021 for the lowest average calendar-year margin under both the DMC and its predecessor, the Margin Protection Program (MPP). End-of-January futures-based forecasts indicated DMC margins averaging between $10.20/cwt and $11.00/cwt in 2024.

November DMC Margin Barely Tops $9.50 for the First Time in 2023

The November margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program inched up $0.14/cwt from a month earlier to $9.58/cwt, marking its first time in 2023 above the maximum $9.50/cwt Tier 1 coverage level.

The monthly change was a product of modest price movements. The all-milk price rose $0.10/cwt to $21.70/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula dropped $0.04/cwt to $12.12/cwt of milk. There was a bit more drama inside the DMC feed cost formula, with a $0.35/cwt increase in the soybean meal price factor slightly more than offset by a combined drop in the prices of corn and premium alfalfa hay. During the first ten months of this year, the average monthly change, plus or minus, in the margin was $1.22/cwt, the average monthly change in the all-milk price was $1.15/cwt and the average monthly change in the DMC feed cost was $0.37/cwt.

With one more month in to be reported for last year, the 2023 average margin is on track to average about $6.80/cwt, which would be the second-lowest margin for the DMC and its predecessor Margin Protection Program (MPP), just above 2021’s average DMC margin of $6.70/cwt. The end-of year futures prices indicated the margins would average about $8.60/cwt during January-September this year but improve during the fourth quarter to average about $9.10/cwt for the year.

DMC Margin Gains $1 in October

The Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) Program margin in October saw another significant monthly increase, as the futures markets had been anticipating. The all-milk price rose $0.60/cwt from September to $21.60/cwt., and the October DMC cost was down by $0.40/cwt to $12.16/cwt., mostly due to a lower corn price. The October margin was therefore $9.44/cwt, generating just a 6-cent margin payment for coverage at the $9.50/cwt Tier 1 level.

The dairy and grain futures markets are anticipating the substantial increases the DMC margins  have made over the past three months, from $3.52/cwt in July to October’s $9.44/cwt, have hit pause, and the margin will remain at or modestly below the $9.50/cwt level for the next several months.

NMPF Secures Continued DMC Production History Boost in Farm Bill Extension

NMPF worked closely with the House and Senate Agriculture Committees last month to finalize a one-year farm bill extension that was signed into law Nov. 17 as part of a larger government funding bill.

The extension continues the successful Dairy Margin Coverage program for 2024. At NMPF’s urging, it also incorporates the 2019 partial production history update, previously known as Supplemental DMC, into the underlying DMC safety net.

Through 2023, Supplemental DMC offered payments to those producers whose DMC production history was below five million pounds, but whose actual production had increased to that level by 2019. Eligible farmers received payments totaling 75 percent of the difference between their actual 2019 production and their DMC production history. Enactment of the farm bill extension now converts this supplemental program into a base production history update within DMC, ensuring it will continue going forward without requiring a separate extension.

Congress’s move also funds those programs that did not have a budget “baseline” to ensure that they would be funded into the next farm bill. This includes the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research, which was created in the 2014 Farm Bill with NMPF’s support to leverage both private and public resources to maximize agricultural research needs.

NMPF thanked congressional leaders for their work on the extension and reinforced the importance of passing a five-year farm bill as soon as possible. “We commend House and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairs Glenn Thompson and Debbie Stabenow, as well as Ranking Members David Scott and John Boozman, for their bipartisan work to finalize this farm bill extension as part of the congressional spending agreement President Biden signed today,” NMPF president and CEO Jim Mulhern said in a statement. “With this bill passed, we stand ready to work closely with the House and Senate Agriculture Committees to deliver a strong, five-year farm bill as swiftly as possible.”