NMPF’s executive vice president Paul Bleiberg discusses the current agenda for Congress as the leadership transitions in Washington from President Biden to President-elect Trump. Bleiberg also highlights that the USDA plans to soon open the 2025 sign-up for the Dairy Margin Coverage program, for those farmers not already enrolled in the federal safety net.
Tag: dairy margin coverage
DMC Margin Drops Again – to Third Highest Ever
The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program lost $0.88/cwt from a month before, yet, at $14.29/cwt, still came in as the third highest since margin protection became the basic safety net program for dairy in 2015.
The November U.S. average all-milk price dropped by $1/cwt from October to $24.20/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula declined by $0.12/cwt. A lower soybean meal price more than offset a higher corn price; the premium alfalfa hay price was little changed.
The end of December dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12.50/cwt for all of calendar year 2025, which would be $0.60/cwt higher than the 2024 annual average and well above the trigger under which payments begin.
Year-End Legislation Preserves Dairy Safety Net, Ensures Disaster Relief
Following advocacy from NMPF and other farm stakeholders, Congress passed legislation Dec. 20 extending the 2018 farm bill through 2025 and providing relief to farmers who suffered losses from natural disasters in 2023 or 2024.
The extension continues the Dairy Margin Coverage safety net for the entirety of 2025. Consistent with the extension enacted in 2023, the 2019 partial production history update is part of the underlying DMC program and will remain so over the long term. In addition, those producers that initially signed up in 2019 using the five-year “lock in” option will continue to receive a 25 percent premium discount in 2025. Further, the onset of permanent law, which would trigger outdated government support known as the “dairy cliff,” is also averted through the end of next year.
The disaster assistance portion of the package provides the U.S. Department of Agriculture with $30.78 billion to offer relief to producers who endured losses, including for milk, in 2023 and 2024 on account of a wide variety of natural disasters, including droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat, tornadoes, winter storms, and freezes. Within this larger total, the bill sets aside $2 billion for assistance to livestock producers for losses related to drought, wildfires, and floods.
NMPF is grateful to Rep. David Valadao, R-CA, for leading efforts to enact the overall package and for securing the inclusion of floods on account of damages California dairy farmers endured last year due to livestock relocation, shelter-in-place, and feed crop losses. The bill also allows USDA to provide some support in the form of block grants to states, a priority for southeastern producers recently impacted by devastating hurricanes.
With this package signed into law, NMPF looks forward to working with the House and Senate Agriculture Committees to complete a new farm bill in 2025 that makes needed policy improvements and provides dairy farmers and their cooperatives long-term certainty for the years ahead.
Dairy Poised for an Action-Packed 2025
By Paul Bleiberg, Executive Vice President, Government Affairs, National Milk Producers Federation
2024 was a tumultuous year on the political front, and 2025 promises to be just as eventful on the policy front.
The 2024 election resulted in President-elect Donald Trump winning a second term while Republicans simultaneously won control of the U.S. Senate and held their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. With a governing trifecta in hand next year, Republicans are poised to put their stamp on many significant issues, several of which have direct implications for dairy farmers.
Picking up where this year left off, a new farm bill remains on the congressional to-do list. Lawmakers enacted a one-year extension before adjourning for the year, paving the way for House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson of Pennsylvania and incoming Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman of Arkansas to lead their respective panels in drafting long-term farm policy legislation next year.
This year’s House and Senate farm bill frameworks included numerous dairy priorities, such as requiring USDA to conduct mandatory manufacturing cost surveys every two years, prioritizing common food name protection in trade discussions, and allowing schools to serve nutrient-dense whole milk. This year’s extension ensures that the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program continues without disruption as the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) advocates for a new five-year farm bill next year that meets dairy’s needs.
Republicans will also turn their attention to extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, one of President-elect Trump’s signature first-term accomplishments. NMPF will urge Congress to continue several pieces of the 2017 law, including the Section 199A domestic manufacturing tax deduction that allows agricultural cooperatives to pass the proceeds directly back to their farmer-owners. Congress is likely to complete this process using the tool known as budget reconciliation, which allows for the consideration of certain tax and spending legislation not subject to the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster requirement.
Finally, Congress will need to address an overall government funding deadline in early 2025. This year’s draft House and Senate agriculture funding bills included several NMPF-backed provisions, including House language to reverse the reduction in the maximum monthly milk allotment in USDA’s final foods package rule for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) and Senate language mirroring the Innovative FEED Act to allow the Food and Drug Administration to review animal feed additives in a more efficient manner. While a short-term funding extension will require the new Congress to complete the full-year bills, the bills drafted this year will likely serve as the starting point for final negotiations next year.
Beyond these priorities, Congress and the incoming Trump Administration are likely to address major issues ranging from environmental policy to labor to trade. At each step of the way, NMPF will advocate for dairy farmers and the cooperatives they own as they seek to provide the U.S. and the world with wholesome, nutritious, and sustainably-produced milk and dairy products.
lve harmful barriers to trade, and promote the U.S. dairy industry as the global supplier of choice.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Dec. 26, 2024.
NMPF’s Galen Reviews 2024 Highlights, Latest on Farm Bill Extension
NMPF’s senior vice president Chris Galen outlines for Dairy Radio Now listeners how Congress is wrapping together a farm bill extension with a government funding bill, just a few days before Christmas, and how NMPF will work with Congress on a new farm bill early in 2025. He also summarizes highlights for dairy farmers from 2024, including strong margins and near-record levels of dairy consumption.
October DMC Margin Recedes $0.40/cwt from September Record
The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program decreased by $0.40/cwt from September’s record level to $15.17/cwt. The October all-milk price was down $0.30/cwt from September to $25.20/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula rose again from September, by $0.10/cwt of milk, mostly on a higher price for premium alfalfa hay.
The end of November dairy and grain futures indicated the DMC margin would average around $11.85/cwt for all of 2024.
Record DMC margins and relatively high prices come as policy and market developments continue to keep the NMPF/U.S. Dairy Export Council Joint Economics team busy with market analysis and events
NMPF Senior Director for Economic Research & Analysis Stephen Cain presented a market outlook to the ADPI Risk Management Seminar on Nov. 6 in Chicago and an FMMO and a farm bill update to Texas Farm Bureau virtually on Nov. 7. Will Loux gave an overview of the impact of H5N1 on the market to the Innovation Center Animal Care Committee virtually on Nov. 14.
September DMC Margin Sets Second Consecutive Monthly Record
The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program rose by $1.85/cwt from August’s previous record level to $15.57/cwt, again the highest since margin protection became the basic dairy safety net program in January 2015.
The September all-milk price was $25.50/cwt, $1.90/cwt higher than the month before, while the DMC feed cost formula inched up from August by $0.05/cwt of milk, mostly on offsetting price moves for corn and premium alfalfa.
The end of October dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12/cwt for all of calendar year 2024.
August DMC Margin Sets Record
The Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) monthly margin rose by $1.40/cwt from the month before to $13.72/cwt, the highest since margin protection replaced the old price support program as the basic dairy safety net program in January 2015. The August all-milk price was $23.60/cwt, up $0.80/cwt from July, and the DMC feed cost formula dropped by $0.60/cwt of milk, driven mostly by a lower corn price.
Late September dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12.20/cwt for all of calendar year 2024.
FMMO Persistence Pays off for Farmers
- USDA’s recommended FMMO decision incorporates NMPF proposals
- Economics team member provided market outlooks and FMMO process updates across the country
NMPF’s Joint Economics Unit saw intense Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization in 2024, especially in the year’s earlier months. NMPF submitted its final legal brief to USDA in March, emphasizing that farmers are the reason the order system exists and that they should be the priority as USDA considers its final decision.
USDA released its recommended FMMO modernization plan July 1, agreeing in large part with the underlying principles of NMPF’s proposal. USDA’s biggest difference with NMPF was its establishment of a Class I mover for extended shelf-life products, which consists of the average of with an adjustable mover, even as most of the U.S. milk supply would revert to the “higher-of” formula in effect until 2019, as NMPF and its members advocated. NMPF-USDEC Joint Economics team members explain USDA’s recommended decision here.
Members of NMPF’s FMMO task force have reconvened to write comments on the recommended decision, which will be handed in by the Sept. 13 comment deadline for all stakeholders. USDA will review submissions and issue a final decision in November, followed by a producer referendum likely near the end of the year. Any changes will be implemented in early 2025, ending the formal FMMO modernization process.
Even as FMMO consumed team energy, members of the economics team traveled the country in 2024, providing expertise on changing market conditions throughout the year and updates on the FMMO modernization process.
Stephen Cain, senior director of research and economic analysis for NMPF, and Dr. Peter Vitaliano, vice president for economic policy and market research for NMPF, presented updates on the federal order modernization efforts to the NMPF Young Cooperators in February, the Southeast Milk Inc., Leadership Experience (SMILE) in May, and to the NMPF Board of Directors periodically. In August, Cain travelled to Detroit to update Michigan Milk Producers Association on the next steps in the process.
Producers were also updated on current and changing market conditions through 2024. Will Loux, senior vice president of global economic affairs for NMPF and USDEC, presented a domestic and export market outlook to South Dakota Dairy Producers in January and Dairy Farmers of America in July, as well as an update on the state of the dairy industry to the Idaho Milk Processors Association in August.
The economics team also met with the boards of United Dairymen of Arizona, Agri-Mark, Land O’Lakes, and Michigan Milk Producers Association to provide an update on Cooperatives Working Together renewal and modernization efforts. Cain and Dr. Vitaliano also provided outlook presentations for the National Ice Cream Mix Association annual meeting in January and to the American Butter Institute in April. Dr. Vitaliano also gave a butter-specific presentation to the joint American Dairy Products Institute-American Butter Institute annual conference in April.
Amid this backdrop, the dairy economy itself showed signs of improvement. The Dairy Margin Coverage Program, the main federal safety net for U.S. milk producers, saw its fourth highest ever margin in July, at $12.23/cwt, with the all-milk price at $22.80/cwt. End of August dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12.25/cwt for all of calendar year 2024.
June DMC Margin Gains $1.14/cwt to $11.66/cwt
The Dairy Margin Coverage Program margin in June was $11.66/cwt after adding $1.14/cwt over the previous month.
The June all-milk price was $22.80/cwt, up $0.80/cwt from May, and the DMC feed cost dropped by $0.34 for the month, mostly on a lower premium alfalfa price. The DMC margin calculated by USDA has risen $2.06/cwt over the past two months, reaching a level well above the threshold at which payments are generated by falling margins.
Futures-based forecasts at the end of July indicate that the DMC margin will average about $11.90/cwt during 2024, $0.40/cwt higher than similar forecasts indicated a month ago, with a peak in October, a sign that producers may have an opportunity to repair battered balance sheets over the next several months.
May DMC Margin Jumps to $10.52/cwt as Higher Prices Outstrip Feed Costs
The Dairy Margin Coverage Program rose sharply in May to levels well above the floor needed to trigger payments to dairy farmers, with milk prices rocketing past increasing feed costs to bolster dairy bottom lines.
Feed prices in May sharply reversed a falling trend of recent months to gain $0.58/cwt of milk from a month before, as measured by the DMC feed cost formula. All three formula components contributed measurably to the boost. Even so, May milk prices gained $1.50/cwt from April, rising to $22.00/cwt boosting the DMC margin by $0.92/cwt from the prior month to $10.52/cwt.
Available forecasts at the end of June indicate that the DMC margin will average about $11.50/cwt during 2024. This would be the second-highest average margin for a calendar year since margin protection became the basic federal safety net program for dairy.
April DMC Margin Little Changed from March
The April Dairy Margin Coverage Program margin was $9.60/cwt, down by $0.05/cwt from March, just above the maximum $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level for the second month in a row.
The April All-Milk price dropped from March by $0.10/cwt to $20.50/cwt, and the April DMC feed cost calculation dropped by $0.15/cwt, on a $11/ton lower premium alfalfa hay price. Small changes in the corn and soybean meal prices offset each other on a per hundredweight of milk basis in the formula.
Available forecasts at the end of May indicate an increasingly high likelihood that the DMC margin will remain considerably above $9.50/cwt for the rest of the year.
