Author: Rachel Ravencraft

Ready for Action: NMPF’s Bleiberg Anticipates Busy 2025

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

With a Republican “trifecta” of House, Senate and White House control, 2025 will be an active year in Washington, NMPF Executive Vice President for Government Affairs Paul Bleiberg said in a Dairy Defined Podcast released today.

“Everybody should just buckle up. It’s going to be a busy 2025,” said Bleiberg, who leads NMPF’s lobbying efforts.

The trifecta “means a certain ability to move your agenda through unilaterally or without the other party involved,” he said. “It also in broader terms refers to setting the agenda, obviously controlling the different committees and setting topics and moving legislation through broad decisions about governing really do fall to the party that has a trifecta.”

That will have meaningful effects on taxes and other areas of legislation, as well as on regulatory efforts, Bleiberg said. Immigration and trade also promise to be hot topics in the new year, ones with important implications, he said.

For more of the Dairy Defined podcast, you can find and subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music under the podcast name “Dairy Defined.”

Driven by Cheese, Dairy Consumption Rises Again

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

Propelled by record cheese use and gains in butter, cottage cheese and yogurt, U.S. per capita dairy consumption returned to 1950s levels last year, according to USDA data released just before Thanksgiving.

At 661 pounds per person, the amount of milk Americans consume is back to where it was in 2021, which in turn was on par with the year Buddy Holly died — at least in terms of dairy U.S. dairy consumption.

What’s driving the trend? Think cheese, which has doubled in per capita consumption over the past 50 years even as per capita fluid milk use has declined. Or look at butter, at its highest since the 1960s. And fermented dairy products are having a moment — cottage cheese consumption is at its highest in a decade, and yogurt is also rising.

The only disappointment? Rounding. If you drill more deeply into the numbers, 2023 didn’t quite match 2021, with consumption at 660.7 pounds, compared to 661.2 two years ago. But with positive signs in sales and the holidays ahead, there’s still a chance for Americans to push 2024 to new heights.

We can do this, America. Have your grocery carts at the ready, help a dairy farmer, and enjoy the perfect companion for your holiday cheer.

 

NMPF Builds on Strong China Relationship

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

NMPF Executive Vice President for Policy Development & Strategy Jaime Castaneda traveled to Shanghai and Beijing the week of Nov. 4 as part of NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s ongoing efforts to grow U.S. dairy’s market share in China. 

Joined by USDEC President and CEO Krysta Harden, Castaneda presented at the China International Import Expo and the Global Dairy Conference, highlighting the U.S. dairy’s commitment to being a reliable supplier of high-quality, safe, and sustainable products. 

While in China, Castaneda and Harden delivered a new proposal to lower China’s most favored nation tariffs for cheese to Madam Yu, the Vice President of the China Chamber of Commerce of Foodstuffs and Native Produce. Like U.S. dairy’s successful tariff reduction effort in 2017, the proposal would improve market access for U.S. dairy producers to the top dairy importing country in the world. 

The trip to China is just the latest NMPF and USDEC effort to grow the dairy relationship between the two countries. Castaneda in September spoke at a U.S-China Bilateral Agriculture Industry Roundtable on the opportunities for American ag companies in China. That came on the heels of a USDEC-USDA Foreign Agricultural Service business development mission to Beijing and Shanghai in June, which helped to fortify relationships between U.S. dairy suppliers and Chinese buyers and strengthen ties with Chinese trade associations and government agencies. 

November CWT-Assisted Export Sales Nearly 27.6 Million Pounds

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

CWT member cooperatives secured 121 contracts in November, adding 27.6 million pounds of product to CWT-assisted sales in 2024. This is equal to 273.8 million pounds of milk in milk equivalent on a milkfat basis. These products will go to customers in Asia, Oceania, Middle East-North Africa, Central America, the Caribbean and South America and will be shipped from November 2024 through May 2025. 

Exporting dairy products is critical to the viability of dairy farmers and their cooperatives across the country. Whether or not a cooperative is actively engaged in exporting cheese, butter, anhydrous milkfat, cream cheese, or whole milk powder, moving products into world markets is essential. CWT provides a means to move domestic dairy products to overseas markets by helping to overcome U.S. dairy’s trade disadvantages.  

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT will pay export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by the submission of the required documentation. 

FARM Showcases Sustainability Progress

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Program highlighted the launch of FARM Environmental Stewardship Version 3 at the Fall Meeting of the Dairy Sustainability Alliance, highlighting progress in dairy sustainability and stewardship.  

Nicole Ayache, NMPF’s chief sustainability officer, took the main stage to talk about the recent kick off and its incorporation of the Ruminant Farm System (RuFaS) model, a whole-farm model that simulates dairy farm production and environmental impact. Vermont dairy farmer Brian McGarry joined Ayache, sharing insights and opportunities for farmers and their cooperatives to evaluate potential technologies and measure progress.  

FARM’s Senior Director of Animal Care, Beverly Hampton Phifer, led animal care evaluators through Version 5 training in Green Bay, WI. Evaluators must be re-certified every updated version cycle and attend a recalibration training annually. This marks the ninth training of the year, with the last training for 2024 taking place last Monday in Fresno, CA.  

October DMC Margin Recedes $0.40/cwt from September Record

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program decreased by $0.40/cwt from September’s record level to $15.17/cwt. The October all-milk price was down $0.30/cwt from September to $25.20/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula rose again from September, by $0.10/cwt of milk, mostly on a higher price for premium alfalfa hay. 

The end of November dairy and grain futures indicated the DMC margin would average around $11.85/cwt for all of 2024. 

Record DMC margins and relatively high prices come as policy and market developments continue to keep the NMPF/U.S. Dairy Export Council Joint Economics team busy with market analysis and events 

NMPF Senior Director for Economic Research & Analysis Stephen Cain presented a market outlook to the ADPI Risk Management Seminar on Nov. 6 in Chicago and an FMMO and a farm bill update to Texas Farm Bureau virtually on Nov. 7. Will Loux gave an overview of the impact of H5N1 on the market to the Innovation Center Animal Care Committee virtually on Nov. 14.  

H5N1 Response Evolves with FDA, USDA Studies

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

NMPF staff is providing key input into federal mitigation efforts and leading dairy-farmer response as the H5N1 situation evolves. NMPF has participated in federal-led planning groups that have been meeting daily for months, and the NCIMS Executive Board is heavily engaged with those planning groups, as well. 

FDA is in the final week of its milk silo testing study, which began Oct. 28. Through the six-week study, FDA has collected samples from raw milk storage silos at dairy processing facilities in participating states. This voluntary, double-blinded study is designed for data-gathering purposes only, with no way to trace back to individual farms. In the first three weeks of FDA’s study, only one sample tested positive for H5N1.  

USDA hopes to begin its monitoring effort after FDA’s study concludes. The USDA monitoring effort is different from FDA’s and will be ongoing. Under USDA’s  monitoring effort, samples will be taken from each raw milk silo at processing locations on a periodic basis. When a silo is determined to be positive, state animal health officials will be notified who will in turn assist farms associated with the positive sample.  

Several states have implemented their own programs with mandatory bulk testing of milk to reduce the spread of H5N1, including California, Colorado, Michigan, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania. These individual state testing programs are separate from the testing conducted by FDA and the upcoming USDA testing program. 

The Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture announced Nov. 20 that it would begin mandatory testing of milk from Pennsylvania dairy farms. Though no cases of H5N1 have been detected in Pennsylvania cattle, the commonwealth is implementing this program to help with early detection.  

Any cooperative or milk processor marketing milk from a Pennsylvania dairy farm must collect samples of raw milk taken from each compartment of each milk tanker from every pickup route once every 14 days to ensure that all farms supplying milk to those plants are covered. Samples must be taken by trained, certified personnel and submitted to a Pennsylvania Animal Diagnostic Laboratory System lab within 48 hours of collection. All testing will be handled with no out-of-pocket cost to the farmer, milk processor, or hauler. If milk from a tanker truck tests positive for H5N1, the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture will work with the processor to determine which farms supplied milk to that tanker. From there, the Bureau of Animal Health will take samples from individual farms to determine the source and work with those farmers on biosecurity measures to prevent further spread. More about the PA program can be found here. 

NMPF Poised for Action-Packed 2025 as Republicans Sweep

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

NMPF is analyzing the results of the 2024 elections, building new relationships and strengthening old ones as business-as-usual in Washington promises to shift next year with Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress. 

In preparation for this “trifecta” next year, House and Senate Republicans elected their leadership teams immediately following the November elections. House Republicans voted to keep in place Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-LA, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-MN, while electing Representative Lisa McClain, R-MI, as Republican Conference Chair.  

Representatives Emmer and McClain both represent sizable dairy footprints. In the Senate, Republicans elected Senator John Thune, R-SD, a longtime dairy ally and Senate Agriculture Committee member, to serve as their Majority Leader next year. Sens. John Barrasso, R-WY, Tom Cotton, R-AR, and Shelley Moore Capito, R-WV, were elected to the other top leadership spots of Majority Whip, Republican Conference Chair, and Republican Policy Committee Chair, respectively. 

House Republicans in December are likely to work with President Biden and Senate Democrats to extend several expiring laws on a short-term basis so that they can tackle them next year with complete control of the nation’s capital. Congress also is on track to pass another one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill before adjourning.  

This year’s House farm bill and Senate frameworks included numerous dairy priorities, such as requiring USDA to conduct mandatory manufacturing cost surveys every two years, prioritizing the protection of common food names in trade discussions, and allowing schools to serve nutrient dense whole milk. Should a new farm bill not be passed this month, NMPF will once again advocate for a new farm bill next year that meets dairy’s needs. However, an extension at least would ensure that the Dairy Margin Coverage program continues without disruption. 

Congress also is likely to extend government funding on a short-term basis, possibly until March. The House and Senate 2025 agriculture funding bills included several NMPF-backed provisions, including House language to reverse the reduction in the maximum monthly milk allotment in USDA’s final foods package rule for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children and Senate language mirroring the Innovative FEED Act to allow the Food and Drug Administration to review animal feed additives in a more efficient manner.  

While a short-term funding extension will require the new Congress to complete the full-year 2025 bills, the bills drafted this year will likely serve as the starting point for final negotiations next year. 

The 119th Congress that convenes in January will have a full plate that extends well beyond finishing this year’s business. An extension of the debt limit, the federal government’s borrowing authority, will come due in the first quarter of the year. Then, with full control of Washington, Republicans are expected to turn their attention to extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, one of President-elect Trump’s signature accomplishments from his first term.  

NMPF will urge Congress to continue several pieces of the 2017 law, including the Section 199A domestic manufacturing tax deduction that allows agricultural cooperatives to pass the proceeds directly back to their farmer-owners. Congress is likely to complete this process using the tool known as budget reconciliation, which allows for the consideration of certain taxation and spending legislation not subject to the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster requirement. 

Much Remains Unknown in Washington’s New Era

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

Voters spoke clearly last Nov. 5: They want change in Washington. President-elect Donald Trump’s convincing victory, combined with Republican control of both houses of Congress, provides a clear path for important changes in a wide range of policy, both domestic and foreign.

It’s only natural during a time like this to begin playing what-ifs, taking past statements, genuine policy concerns, and anxieties about the road ahead, and mixing them into reactions that may or may not be useful as developments occur. The reality is that much remains unknown about what lies ahead in Washington. For dairy, like everyone else, the prudent path is to focus on what’s known, remember first principles and keep energy from becoming exhausted over speculations that at this moment are only that – speculation.

One example of focusing on what’s real is tax policy. Current tax provisions enacted by Congress in 2017 are due to expire at the end of 2025. Congress will need to do something to keep those provisions from expiring. That’s a fact. Several of those provisions, such as the Section 199A Qualified Business Income Deduction, are important to dairy farmers and the cooperatives they own. We at NMPF are already engaged in conversations on policy that will help our members and are well-positioned to advance this discussion in the year ahead.

The farm bill is another example. With current law already lapsed, an extension of the 2018 Farm Bill will pass this year to tee up a new law in 2025. We are urging lawmakers to make either type of legislation a vehicle to advance portions of our Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization plan that require congressional action, such as a mandatory plant-cost study to help inform future discussions about a proper make allowance. Regardless of what farm bill ultimately takes shape, we know there will be one – and we are prepared to make it work for dairy.

Along with the certainties, other issues that are important to dairy – and dominate headlines – have less-certain paths. In these cases, it’s important to know where we stand and be prepared to inform and educate policymakers as always. But beyond that, the best course is to engage with actual events rather than the latest, breathless, but ultimately questionable, narrative.

We know, for example, that foreign workers are critical to the success of U.S. dairy, and that we will work closely with members of Congress and federal officials to show the importance of those workers to the dairy industry, farm communities, and food security. We also know that we support long-standing Food and Drug Administration policy on restricting the sale of raw milk, due to public health and consumer confidence risks, and that we will work productively with anyone in federal leadership on these concerns. But neither of those issues — to cite only those two — have fully taken shape. Speculation makes good sound bites, but may not encourage good, sound policy in the long run.

And good, sound policy is what we need to be about.

So, while some are excited, and some are anxious, about what may lie ahead in Washington in the year ahead, a deep breath and careful consideration is warranted. U.S. dairy, U.S. agriculture and the nation are on the first steps of a journey. Let’s choose them wisely.

Gregg Doud

President & CEO, NMPF

 

Affordability Remains a Dairy Strength

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

Regardless of how one feels about the November elections, one thing that voters said loud and clear was that they don’t like inflation. As data shows, that’s yet another reason to like dairy.

A look at Consumer Price Index data going back to the 2008 financial crisis shows that, compared to overall costs, and particularly to other food and beverages, dairy remains relatively affordable, and is becoming even more so over time. Dairy product prices this fall are roughly the same as they were two years ago, even as overall prices and food and beverage prices are both more than 6 percent higher.

This stability isn’t unusual. Dairy prices rose only 12 percent for the entire decade of the 2010s, helping household budget planning and easing price pressures felt more keenly in other areas of the economy.

Dairy isn’t immune to inflation, of course – dairy saw post-pandemic price runups like everything else, as consumers – and voters – remember well. But after that interruption, dairy products are once again anchoring grocery spending, with high quality, high nutrition, great taste and affordability.

So as holiday shopping lists are made and parties are planned, be sure not to skip the dairy aisle. For unparalleled value, in every sense, spend a little extra time in the dairy case. It’s a good place to be this year.

 

 

New FARM Initiative Advances Dairy Stewardship

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

FARM Environmental Stewardship Version 3 is out – and it’s a step forward for dairy farmers both as stewards and as business managers, according to NMPF Chief Sustainability Officer Nicole Ayache, who oversaw development of the initiative through the National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Program, in a Dairy Defined Podcast released today.

With new, updating modeling, under FARM ES Version 3, “farmers can actually run scenarios to assess practice or technology changes, see how those would impact their greenhouse gas emissions, and any potential impact on milk productivity as well,” Ayache said. “The scenarios, being able to project what-ifs, is the biggest benefit.”

The FARM Program is a partnership between NMPF and Dairy Management Inc. that helps ensure dairy’s success by demonstrating U.S. dairy farmer commitment to safe, high-quality, high-integrity milk. FARM ES Version 3 took effect Oct. 31.

For more information on FARM ES Version 3, visit the FARM Program website. For more of the Dairy Defined podcast, you can find and subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon Music under the podcast name “Dairy Defined.”

Media outlets may use clips from the podcast on the condition of attribution to the National Milk Producers Federation.

Dairy Has Persevered Through a Successful Year

Posted on by Rachel Ravencraft

Note: These remarks are adapted from NMPF President & CEO Gregg Doud’s remarks at NMPF’s annual meeting in Phoenix, Oct. 22, 2024.

In reflecting on where we were a year ago in this industry, it wasn’t very pretty in terms of prices. There wasn’t a lot of optimism. We have experienced several stressful headlines and considerable market risk in the last year, but look at where we are now. The situation has greatly improved — but there is still work to be done.

Let’s start with the long-overdue update of USDA’s Federal Milk Marketing Orders. Then there is the ongoing revamp of the Cooperatives Working Together program (yes, we need to come up with a new name) to make our dairy exports more competitive. We didn’t sign up for H5N1, but it’s here, and we have to deal with it. The Farm Bill, the Dietary Guidelines and ongoing efforts regarding trade issues – they have all been big challenges this year and we cannot let our guard down for a minute in the months ahead. Importantly, we have a tremendous team in Washington. They are rock solid and up for the task.

And that’s critical in areas such as Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization. As I was just coming on board, I went to a couple of the hearings in Carmel, IN. And although I’m an ag economist, it gave me a headache. What a challenging conversation. But what I also saw was the unbelievable expertise and leadership of numerous NMPF members. Our unanimous message made all the difference. It forced the government to listen.

We’ve seen similar impressive accomplishments on Capitol Hill as well. Late last year we had one of the most interesting votes I’ve seen in 32 years in Washington, when the House of Representatives voted 330 to 99 to put whole milk back in schools. This was a situation where some good old-fashioned shoe-leather lobbying, where you sit down with a member of Congress and say, ‘This is the science. This is the better product. We need to put whole milk back in schools.’ The result was that a majority of both Democrats and Republicans in the House, 330 to 99, agreed. Unfortunately, we have yet to be successful in the Senate on this important issue — but the year isn’t over.

I’m not sure when we’re going to pass the Farm Bill. It could be in the lame duck. It could be next year. It could be the year after. Regardless of who is in the White House or Congress next year, the 2025 congressional agenda complicates the Farm Bill legislative process. The next Congress will likely start by navigating issues such as the debt ceiling, budget reconciliation and executive branch nominations. However, the huge issue will be the five-year expiration of our tax code. The “delta” or difference in terms of the Farm Bill and what we’re debating over is about $10 billion when it comes to reference prices. My understanding is, if Congress does nothing in 2025 on taxes, on Jan. 1, 2026, the tax bill for everyone in this country goes up by $5 trillion. This will be the first big debate of the next Congress and, for the farm economy, it dwarfs any other issue. A reasonable expectation is that this discussion will consume the first half of next year, leaving the Farm Bill debate for the last half of the year, squeezed between the process of approving appropriations bills.

We also have to continue to pay close attention to H5N1. Sometimes when we make investments in animal disease preparedness, we’re not sure if the event will ever actually occur. One of those investments, via the checkoff, we made a while back was in terms of foot and mouth disease, and people said, ‘We haven’t had that in nearly a hundred years, why are we investing in that?’

In reality, this little bit of foresight paid huge dividends this year. When H5N1 hit, we pulled these biosecurity plans off the shelf, we adapted them to this virus, and we plugged them in for a webinar for 1,300 people in this industry, in three days — an unbelievable accomplishment. When we look back to the lessons learned on H5N1, this initial investment, and the subsequent on-farm biosecurity implementation efforts that were a result, made a big difference. We must continue to look around the corner to determine what new investments must be made to ensure we’re ready for the next event, whatever that might be.

On the regulatory side, we’ve been investing in the fight against plant-based beverage mislabeling, and we’ve been proactive on the Dietary Guidelines and other nutrition issues. The team effort with incredible dairy nutrition research coming from the checkoff side, along with numerous industry partnerships along the way has been terrific. We’re going to continue to make our case respectfully, but we are not going to give an inch.

We continue to lead and innovate with improvements in our FARM Program and the ongoing work with the U.S. Dairy Export Council on these always thorny trade issues must be a priority to improve the demand environment for U.S. dairy, domestically and internationally.

This industry has a tremendously bright future. There’s never been a year like this year, in terms of headline risk in the agricultural commodity business. My contemporaries talk about this all the time with wars, inflation, viruses, et cetera. Yet, despite all of this, dairy farmers have persevered and had a tremendously successful year. Our future success will also come from the roughly $7 billion in new processing investments now being made in this industry. This is an investment in you, the dairy farmers of this great nation, and for good reason!

It has been an honor to be a part of the NMPF team in Washington this past year, and I look forward to working with you, and fighting for you in Washington, going forward.

Gregg Doud

President & CEO, NMPF