Herd Growth, Protein Demand Drive Milk Gains

U.S. milk production rose 3.0% on a liquid basis in June as producers added 52,000 head to the milking herd and responded to signals for more dairy proteins.

Circana data shows that cottage cheese sales so far this year have risen 11%, yogurt sales have increased 6.5%, and ultrafiltered milk sales are up 8.3% as consumers reach for high protein dairy products at retail. Skim ingredients are in demand at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as well. Nonfat dry milk prices rebounded in August as competition for skim solids continued and dry whey prices remain firm. Butter demand remains healthy both at home and abroad, although ample production is limiting price upside. Domestic demand for cheese has ebbed as consumers visit quick service restaurants less frequently, but record export volumes have prevented CME Cheddar and Class III prices from easing further.

U.S. milk production seems to have been unbothered by summer heatwaves, aside from a few regions where milk per cow yields dipped.

Looking ahead, NMPF analysts anticipate growth to continue as producers push for higher protein components and the beef market incentives producers to retain heifers for longer. However, feed prices are forecast to rise as drought limits corn yields and low stocks keep futures elevated. Analysts don’t expect rising feed costs to be accompanied by an increase in the All-Milk Price; that suggests that DMC margins could fall below the $9.50/cwt maximum payment threshold from August through the end of this year.

NMPF’s Forsyth on DMC Signup Deadline

The signup deadline for the Dairy Margin Coverage Program ends on Thursday, Feb. 26. Trey Forsyth, the vice president of government and regulatory affairs for NMPF, said the DMC has been improved by multiple changes. This program has generated significant return on investment for producers of all sizes.


Dairy Farmers Need Assistance; NMPF Explores Options

 

With milk prices and margins projected to be low for several months, NMPF is looking for options to help farmers through harder times, NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga said in an interview with RFD-TV. Aid to help get whole milk in schools, USDA commodity purchases and enhancements to farmer risk-management portfolios are all tools that could help.

NMPF’s Bjerga on Policy Wins in Challenging Times

 

NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga discusses how dairy policy wins are helping to support farmers in a difficult economic environment in an interview with RFD-TV. With U.S. dairy cow numbers at a three-decade high and production increasing globally, legislation such as the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act and support from the Dairy Margin Coverage Program, which was reauthorized last year, and the new NEXT export-assistance initiative, will help farmers manage through challenging times, with additional solutions being explored.

NMPF’s Bjerga on What’s Next for Whole Milk

 

NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga discusses what comes next for whole milk in schools in an interview with WEKZ Radio in Janesville, WI. Passage of the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in Congress will bring whole milk to the next generation of milk-drinkers and ultimately boost dairy prices, but in the meantime logistical and regulatory issues will need to be sorted out. Meanwhile, farmers may see a DMC payment in December as prices decline due to supply issues, and a bright outlook for trade is being boosted further with Senate confirmation of a new chief agricultural trade negotiator.  Bjerga also explains why people are freezing their eggnog for use later in the year, and why horses ate better than humans for much of the 20th century.

NMPF’s Mooney Reflects on Dairy, Discusses its Bright Future

Randy Mooney, a dairy farmer from Rogersville, MO and for 17 years the chariman of the National Milk Producers Federation, reflects on his tenure shortly after stepping down from the role at the organization’s annual meeting. Mooney, who remains on NMPF’s executive board, discusses dairy’s bright future and the honor of serving dairy in an interview with RFD-TV.

Rollins Touts Milk Action Plan at Annual Meeting

ARLINGTON, TX – Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins touted the Trump administration’s milk action plan to support American dairy farmers today at NMPF’s annual meeting.   

“I want to be very clear. We will never stop fighting for those of you in the dairy industry and across rural America we have reached that golden age for our producers,” said Rollins, a Texas native who keynoted the Joint Annual Meeting hosted by NMPF, the United Dairy Board and the United Dairy Industry Association. “Dairy farmers have delivered for America for 250 years, and now it’s time for us to deliver for you.” 

Rollins spoke to roughly 750 farmers, cooperative leaders and industry professionals gathered to discuss industry topics ranging from an economic outlook to dairy labor challenges.NMPF, the largest U.S. dairy farmer group, is holding a series of discussions on policy issues throughout the meeting, ranging from the need to pass the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act to creating lasting labor solutions for U.S. dairy farmers.  

In her remarks, Rollins outlined USDA’s dairy priorities, outlining the administration’s four-point approach to support the industry, including:  

  • Incentivizing dairy consumption through changes to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, expected in December or early January;  
  • Working to drive down input costs;
  • Facilitating investments in American milk processing; and
  • Expanding markets to help milk producers prosper.     

Rollins also noted the importance of farm-labor issues, pledging to seek federal changes to rules and regulations in coordination with the departments of Labor and Homeland Security while noting that broader changes will require congressional action. “We are acutely aware of the unique labor needs of the dairy industry,” she said.  

Rollins became the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture earlier this year after serving as the Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer of the America First Policy Institute. During President Trump’s first administration, she was the Director of the Domestic Policy Council and Assistant to the President for Strategic Initiatives in the White House. She also previously served as Director of the Office of American Innovation. In these roles, she developed and managed the domestic policy agenda of the Trump administration. 

Rollins’s remarks kicked off a busy day at the conference, with remarks from immediate past NMPF Chairman Randy Mooney, newly elected NMPF Chairman Brian Rexing, and NMPF President & CEO Gregg Doud as well as a luncheon featuring awards from the National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Program and NMPF communications.  

A reception sampling top-performing cheeses from NMPF’s annual cheese contest is this evening.  

June DMC Margin Rises $0.70/cwt

The June margin for the Dairy Margin Coverage Program was $11.10/cwt in June, an increase of $0.70/cwt from May. The June all-milk price was unchanged from May at $21.30/cwt, while the June DMC feed cost formula dropped by $0.70/cwt for the month, as the prices of all three formula feed components decreased, particularly that for premium alfalfa hay.

The forecasts maintained by DMC Decision Tool on the USDA website at the end of July showed the DMC margin topping out $13.20/cwt in November and averaging $12.11/cwt for the year.