Tag: dairy economics
U.S. dairy exports hit second all-time high
By Stephen Cain, Vice President, Economic Policy and Market Analysis
U.S. dairy exports finished the year at near-record volumes — up 4% year-over-year (YOY) on a milk solids equivalent (MSE). Last year’s volume was the second highest ever at 2.3 million metric tons (MT) MSE and valued at $9.6 billion. While the year started off slowly with U.S. dairy exports down 1.6% through the first five months, shipments exploded in the back half of the year, up 8% YOY between June and December. The tremendous growth in U.S. exports this past year can be largely attributed to two key drivers: rebounding global demand for dairy products, and U.S. price competitiveness.
Global demand for dairy products over the past few years has been somewhat challenged. From 2022 to 2024, global dairy trade was effectively flat (+0.4%). China, which had been driving growth, pulled back from the market at the same time that many countries around the world struggled with inflation. Fast forward to 2025 (specifically the back half of the year), and we see global trade rebounding significantly — up 3% for the year and up nearly 5% in just the last six months of 2025. What is particularly encouraging about this demand improvement is that it was driven by many countries and not only one or two key importers. Thankfully, global inflation continues to ease and economies around the world are in better shape, which is supporting global dairy trade.
Growing demand wasn’t the only factor boosting U.S. exports. A prolonged period of price competitiveness made the U.S. the most attractive supplier for many dairy products, particularly for cheese and butter. Over the past year, on a spot basis, U.S. cheese prices sat at a 24% (53 cents per pound) discount to other suppliers on average, with butter at a 33% ($1.05 per pound) discount. While that price advantage helped the U.S. grow export sales and capture market share from competitors, U.S. dairy farms are challenged when prices get this low. Positively, on the profitability front, the gap has closed considerably in recent weeks. During that time, U.S. market share of global butter trade grew significantly from 5% in 2024 to 12% in 2025. Similarly on cheese, U.S. market share has risen from 18% to 20% in 2025. Overall, the U.S. grew dairy exports more than any other supplier and surged to become the third-largest agricultural commodity exported.
As a result, U.S. exports improved significantly (+4%), with cheese (+20%) and butterfat (+167%) driving overall volume growth. Conversely, total U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder exports were down 9% last year. The key driver for the decline is the U.S. simply had very little product available for export, driven by lower production and reallocation of skim solids. As a result, exports slipped to the historically three largest markets for the U.S. — Mexico -1%; Southeast Asia -8%; China -5%, leaving space for growth in traditionally smaller markets. Outside of these top regions, U.S. exports grew substantially — up 17% in total with growth across most products.
Altogether, the U.S. had a tremendous year for exports last year driven by both growing global demand and a favorable price advantage. While the U.S. won’t hold this large of a price advantage forever, the expansion in market share and higher sales to new markets seen in 2025 has helped U.S. suppliers gain a foothold that can serve as a foundation for future growth, even when global prices move closer to alignment.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on March 2, 2026.
NMPF’s Forsyth on DMC Signup Deadline
The signup deadline for the Dairy Margin Coverage Program ends on Thursday, Feb. 26. Trey Forsyth, the vice president of government and regulatory affairs for NMPF, said the DMC has been improved by multiple changes. This program has generated significant return on investment for producers of all sizes.
Smart Policy Can Help Mitigate Dairy Pain, NMPF Economists Say
Low milk prices are a grim reality for dairy producers in the near term, with growing trade and federal action serving as remedies to get farmers through tough times, NMPF economists said in a Dairy Defined Podcast.
“There really is no quick fix to get back into balance,” said Will Loux, Senior Vice President for Global Economic Affairs and the head of the joint economics team for NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council. “I do think there are real ways that, from the Whole Milk to Healthy Kids Act, to the National Milk Exports and Trade program, to opportunities to beef up Dairy Revenue Protection, to making sure folks are utilizing that program or Dairy Margin Coverage. There are ways to help, I think, mitigate the pain that we see dairy farmers feeling today from a policy perspective.”
Loux is joined in the podcast by Stephen Cain, Vice President for Economic Policy and Market Analysis.
To hear more Dairy Defined podcasts, you can find and subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon Music under the podcast name “Dairy Defined.”
Dairy Farmers Need Assistance; NMPF Explores Options
With milk prices and margins projected to be low for several months, NMPF is looking for options to help farmers through harder times, NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga said in an interview with RFD-TV. Aid to help get whole milk in schools, USDA commodity purchases and enhancements to farmer risk-management portfolios are all tools that could help.
Milk Supplies Weigh on Prices Despite Export Gains
2025 Dairy Data Highlights
NMPF’s Bjerga on Policy Wins in Challenging Times
NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga discusses how dairy policy wins are helping to support farmers in a difficult economic environment in an interview with RFD-TV. With U.S. dairy cow numbers at a three-decade high and production increasing globally, legislation such as the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act and support from the Dairy Margin Coverage Program, which was reauthorized last year, and the new NEXT export-assistance initiative, will help farmers manage through challenging times, with additional solutions being explored.
Milkfat supply outpaces demand in recent months
Dairy = Growth, Expansion, Opportunity and Optimism
Editor’s Note: This column is adapted from remarks given Nov. 11 at NMPF’s Annual Meeting.
I love where we are in this industry right now. We are right where we want to be.
Yes, there are going to be challenges. Yes, there’s going to be uncertainty. But we’re in expansion mode. And I love it.
What I want the theme to be today, in our industry, is growth and expansion and opportunity and optimism. I understand that that’s tough to do when you’re in Washington DC these days. It’s a tough place to do business. It’s a tough place to get anything done.
But the relationships that the National Milk Producers Federation has are unbelievably strong. Whether it’s Senator Thune or Chairman GT Thompson, up one side and down the other. The unbelievable work, unbelievable work that has gone in on getting whole milk in schools, by Senator Roger Marshall from Kansas, and Senator Welch from Vermont. Bipartisan work.
I want to give you a quick status on whole milk in schools, and where we are. We’re so close on this one, and this is a huge thing. Not just for U.S. consumers, and for all of us who have kids in school, but it’s just doing the right thing.
Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful tax bill is a monumental accomplishment in terms of our global competitiveness. I know the tariffs are disruptive, but that’s a small piece of what amounts to a U.S. industrial policy. We have a tax policy that I think makes us really competitive globally — and not only does that help us on the farm in terms of confidence and investment, but the bill holds other benefits as well: the Section 199A depreciation, the estate tax, the increase in the reference prices for soybeans and wheat, the extension of DMC through 2031 — all were in that bill, folks. That was a critical piece that we got done.
In terms of global competitiveness, we also have to continue with trade deals. USTR is working day and night. These deals are going to matter. We’ve got deals done with Malaysia and Cambodia. And you say, “Well, my goodness, is that a really big deal?” Yes, because these deals got rid of barriers, we got rid of restrictions. We’ve got some really good trade agreements coming, too, in terms of Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. If you’ve noticed, and think about where the president was recently in those countries, those are all the countries that border China, folks. And that’s the really interesting thing: In terms of strategy, the president said, “Well, I’m going to make sure that I go visit all these countries first, before I talk to President Xi in China.” That’s not by coincidence.
Having the opportunity to have duty-free access into Southeast Asia is something that we have wanted across all of agriculture, and in particular in the dairy industry, for a long, long time. That’s going to make a huge difference for us.
Along with these opportunities, we also have some of the best leaders in this industry. Our new NEXT program is an exciting part of our trade future, and the implementation and the federal milk marketing order has been really, really smooth so far. The ability for you to be unanimous in what you wanted as an industry, as you presented this to the government, made all the difference.
As a former government official, I can tell you, when you’re not unanimous, that gives that government official the ability to kind of pick and choose what they want to do. When you come in and say, “This is unanimous, this is what we want to do,” you’ve got no wiggle room as the government official. You’ve got to implement this. And that’s why you were so successful in this.
I want to talk briefly about 2026. At NMPF we have done some strategic planning, and we’ve got some work to do on government, governance, leadership development. The YC program is an unbelievable asset for us in this industry. Thank you all for participating in that. But one of the things we’re going to change at National Milk as soon as this meeting is over is, we’re going to try to have a new lease on life on state issues. You’ve got somewhere between 150 and 200 different pieces of state legislation in the food business right now, and in agriculture. We’re going to try to tackle this, not to lobby on these issues, but just to keep track of what we have going on and to be able to coordinate.
On the trade side, we’ve got the USMCA review. We’re constantly dealing with China. We’ve got a farm bill to finish, and then of course, we have a midterm election here coming this fall. And a challenge to 2026 is, you’re going to have your folks that represent you at home say, “Well, we’ll get to that after the midterm election.”
Well, this immigration issue can’t wait for that, folks. It is without question our number one issue in dairy, but across all of agriculture, in my opinion. And I think, to give you the charge today on all of this, I think we need to remind our elected officials that we’ve got to milk the cows every day. We have to do what we do every day. We don’t have time to wait for the inconvenience of an election to get things done in Washington.
So your charge today is this: We are expanding, we are growing, we are doing well. We have great relationships, and we look forward to the year we have ahead. I’m optimistic.
Gregg Doud
President & CEO, NMPF
Dairy Production Up, Product Prices Down in October
NMPF’s Bjerga on the Push for Whole Milk
NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga tells viewers how they can get involved in the push to put whole milk back on school lunch menus in an interview with RFD-TV. NMPF has put a call to action on its website, nmpf.org, which allows Americans to write their lawmakers, urging them to vote “Yes” on the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in the House of Representatives. The legislation has already passed the Senate and is expected to pass the House easily — if it can get onto an already crowded floor schedule.
