Author: Rachel Ravencraft
Real Milk Extends its Comeback
In the long run, reality wins.
In the decades-old saga of Real Milk vs. The Plant-based Imposters, Team Real had another good year in 2025. While retail sales of fluid milk stayed steady, sales of imitators made from almonds, oats and other items fell 6 percent to 358.4 million gallons last year, according to Circana data of retail sales. Since its peak in 2021, plant-based sales have declined by nearly one-fifth; last year’s drop of 6 percent was the steepest of all four.
As a result, for the fourth straight year, good-old-fashioned fluid milk’s market share rose compared to plant-based beverages, holding 90.7 percent of the combined dairy-and-alternative-beverage market in 2025. That’s the fourth straight annual increase in milk’s market share, and it’s up from 89.4 percent in 2021.
Slowly, but surely, consumers are choosing the better value — in nutrition, in price, and in trustworthiness. In a rational world, real milk and plant-based beverages wouldn’t even be in the same category — their nutritional profiles are radically different, and their ingredients bear no similarity. Decades of plant-based marketing as dairy alternatives have made their mark; but despite that, dairy remains dominant. That’s a tribute to milk’s irreplaceable nutritional package — and to consumers who dig past the hype and make the choices that best fit their nutritional needs.
Not that plant-based beverages are ever going away — far from it. Going back to the data: Even though beverages made from almonds, which is 63 percent of the plant-based market, fell by 8.6 percent last year, and soy fell 8.3 percent, oat-based beverages rose 1.8 percent, as it’s become a solid-though-distant second place to almonds.
People have their reasons to choose ultra-processed beverages of inferior nutritional value. But the decline of plant-based beverages fits within several trends of the 2020s, from the embrace of real food to renewed appreciation of dairy’s nutritional benefits, especially at fuller-fat levels, to consumers who are more critical of what they consume.
Confusion remains in the marketplace over the inferior nutrition of plant-based versus true dairy beverages; that’s shown by surveys and studies. Enforcing federal standards of identity that define milk as an animal product and reserving dairy terms on labels only for true dairy beverages would further these positive marketplace trends. Nutrition science has spoken, and consumer behavior is changing too. Slowly but surely, milk’s integrity is carrying the day, and real dairy is winning. Often, it just takes time.
DMC Signup Ends Feb. 26; NMPF Urges Farmers to Lock in Benefits
Signup for the Dairy Margin Coverage Program ends Thursday. NMPF is urging farmers to apply for the program as part of a risk management strategy that helps dairy producers weather economic swings.
“Dairy Margin Coverage is an essential part of a dairy farmer’s business resilience,” Gregg Doud, president & CEO of NMPF, said. “Smaller farmers gain important protection against lower margins, while larger farmers gain catastrophic coverage at little or even no cost.
“This signup is the first since the program was reauthorized last year, and it includes coverage improvements as well as a 25% premium reduction for a long-term commitment,” he continued. “Farmers can benefit greatly from participating in a program that has helped thousands of dairies.”
DMC changes made as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed last year include:
- An update to production history based on the highest annual milk production level from any one of the 2021, 2022, or 2023 calendar years.
- USDA clarification on how new operations (i.e., those that began marketing milk after Jan. 1, 2023) will be able to establish production history.
- Eligibility for operations to enroll their first 6 million pounds of production at the Tier 1 level, up from 5 million pounds, with all additional production covered under Tier 2. Premium rate fees under Tiers 1 and 2 are unchanged.
- An opportunity for operations to make a one-time election of coverage level and coverage percentage, “locking in” those elections for a six-year period from January 2026-December 2031. Those who elect this option must participate in DMC at the same coverage levels for the six-year period and will receive a 25% premium discount for doing so.
Farmers interested in participating in DMC can complete their paperwork in consultation with their local Farm Service Agency Office. Cooperatives also stand ready to assist.
NMPF Lauds USDA Dairy Purchase Announcement
$148 million in Section 32 funds matches NMPF November request
Dairy farmers thanked USDA and Sec. Brooke Rollins for taking steps to boost low milk prices and expand dairy consumption through significant Section 32 purchases of a balanced, effectively targeted mix of dairy products, including the first major butter purchases in five years.
“Dairy farmers have shared in the struggles faced throughout the agricultural economy, and these purchases will provide important relief to producers who will benefit from the additional demand, helping them provide nutritious dairy products to Americans and the world,” NMPF President & CEO Gregg Doud said.
Specifically, USDA is purchasing:
- $75 million of butter;
- $32.5 million in cheddar cheese;
- $20.5 million in fresh fluid milk;
- $10 million of Swiss cheese; and
- $10 million in Ultra-High Temperature (shelf-stable) milk.
The $148 million in purchases is part of $263 million purchase announcement for numerous agricultural commodities and matches the amount requested by NMPF in a letter sent to USDA last November, which was followed by extensive conversations and further official communication with USDA. Other recent USDA purchases intended to boost the farm economy have included $80 million for specialty crops and $100 million for seafood.
USDA Section 32 purchases, authorized by the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1935, allow USDA to buy surplus, domestically produced agricultural products to stabilize farm products and provide food to federal nutrition assistance programs.
Under the program, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service notifies industry and stakeholders of new opportunities by issuing Purchase Program Announcements throughout the year. Following today’s announcement, USDA will invite offers from approved USDA vendors and award purchase contracts.
Smart Policy Can Help Mitigate Dairy Pain, NMPF Economists Say
Low milk prices are a grim reality for dairy producers in the near term, with growing trade and federal action serving as remedies to get farmers through tough times, NMPF economists said in a Dairy Defined Podcast.
“There really is no quick fix to get back into balance,” said Will Loux, Senior Vice President for Global Economic Affairs and the head of the joint economics team for NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council. “I do think there are real ways that, from the Whole Milk to Healthy Kids Act, to the National Milk Exports and Trade program, to opportunities to beef up Dairy Revenue Protection, to making sure folks are utilizing that program or Dairy Margin Coverage. There are ways to help, I think, mitigate the pain that we see dairy farmers feeling today from a policy perspective.”
Loux is joined in the podcast by Stephen Cain, Vice President for Economic Policy and Market Analysis.
To hear more Dairy Defined podcasts, you can find and subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon Music under the podcast name “Dairy Defined.”
NMPF Statement on House Farm Bill Proposal
From NMPF President & CEO Gregg Doud:
“NMPF thanks Chairman Thompson, House Agriculture Committee members, and their staffs for working to put together a farm bill that will bring greater certainty to producers at a difficult time. Dairy farmers look forward to working with House members and senators as this legislation makes its way through Congress, and we pledge our support in crafting the best legislation possible.”
Some key dairy highlights of the bill include:
- Authorizing long-term the dairy product processing cost surveys initially authorized and funded at $9 million in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA);
- Extending the Dairy Forward Pricing Program, the Dairy Indemnity Program, and the Dairy Promotion and Research Program;
- Supporting voluntary, producer-led conservation programs, such as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), with a continued designation of conservation funds for livestock producers and a directive for states to prioritize methane-reducing practices;
- Establishing a long-term policy directive for the U.S. government to proactively negotiate protections for common cheese names like “parmesan” and “feta,” as championed by NMPF;
- Moving Food for Peace program administration to USDA and continuing $200 million in annual funding for Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Foods that incorporate milk powder to treat chronic malnutrition globally;
- Reassigning export promotion funding initially included in the OBBBA into existing Farm Bill programs like the Market Access Program to make it easier to use by cooperators such as the U.S. Dairy Export Council;
- Expanding economic opportunities for farmers to partner with local food distribution organizations to provide fresh, locally grown foods, including milk and other dairy products, to eligible community institutions;
- Including full-fat fluid milk and hard cheeses in the Dairy Nutrition Incentive Program; and
- Reauthorizing the Farm and Ranch Stress Assistance Network
U.S.–Taiwan Trade Agreement Delivers Major Wins for U.S. Dairy
The National Milk Producers Federation, U.S. Dairy Export Council and the Consortium for Common Food Names commended the signing late yesterday of a landmark trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan that will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. dairy products and preempt nontariff barriers that could otherwise limit the full potential of bilateral dairy trade.
Taiwan is the third-largest fluid milk destination for U.S. exports, and this agreement represents a transformative step forward for the growing market. By securing comprehensive tariff reductions for U.S. dairy products and incorporating meaningful commitments to ensure nontariff measures do not derail trade, the deal positions U.S. dairy suppliers to compete on a level playing field and expand their presence in one of Asia’s most dynamic food markets.
“Taiwan is a trusted partner and a high-value market for U.S. dairy,” Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC, said. “This agreement improves our competitiveness compared to other suppliers and provides assurances that nontariff barriers will not hinder the expansion of U.S. dairy exports. USDEC looks forward to continuing work with the Taiwanese government and the domestic industry to increase dairy consumption and grow the United States’ contribution to supplying Taiwan’s fluid milk and other dairy needs.”
The agreement builds on strong industry-to-industry collaboration between the United States and Taiwan. Last year, NMPF and USDEC representatives traveled to the market to advocate for dairy’s prioritization in the negotiations and deepen engagement with local stakeholders. While there, USDEC and NMPF signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Dairy Association of Taiwan to strengthen market development and information exchange efforts.
“The agreement with Taiwan builds on the incredible momentum we’ve seen from the Administration in securing new trade agreements around the world,” Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF, said. “Each deal to reduce barriers and expand market access strengthens American dairy farms and the communities they support.”
“Taiwan is an important market for the United States, and the commitments to protect common names included in this agreement preempt third countries like the European Union from abusing intellectual property tools to monopolize generic terms and take away U.S. export opportunities,” Jaime Castaneda, executive director of CCFN, said. “We cannot thank Ambassador Greer, Ambassador Callahan and the entire negotiating team enough for prioritizing this issue and ensuring our exporters can continue using the terms known by consumers around the world.”
NMPF, USDEC and CCFN look forward to working closely with U.S. and Taiwanese officials to ensure swift implementation of the agreement and to fully realize its benefits for dairy producers, exporters, and consumers on both sides of the Pacific.
Regulatory Register — Winter 2026
Dairy Industry Leader Testifies to Congress on USMCA Review Priorities
Ted Vander Schaaf, an Idaho dairy farmer and member-owner of Northwest Dairy Association, testified today before the Senate Finance Committee on the importance of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to the U.S. dairy industry and the improvements needed for the agreement to fully deliver for American dairy farmers.
Vander Schaaf serves on the board of directors for the Northwest Dairy Association, the cooperative that owns Darigold, and the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, both of which are members of the National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council.
“Strong, enforceable trade agreements are critically important to the U.S. dairy industry. The United States exported approximately $9 billion in dairy products in 2025, including a record 559,000 metric tons of cheese last year through November,” Vander Schaaf said at the hearing.
Mexico and Canada are critical markets for U.S. dairy, purchasing $3.6 billion in American dairy products in 2024 and accounting for 44 percent of total U.S. dairy export value. USMCA is vital to those trade flows. However, Canada’s ongoing, blatant disregard of key USMCA obligations has undermined the agreement, and Mexico’s strong collaboration and partnership with the U.S. has yet to extend to its intellectual property office, as it pertains to common food names.
Vander Schaaf highlighted Canada’s continued manipulation of its dairy tariff-rate quotas and its circumvention of USMCA dairy protein export disciplines, which have limited U.S. producers’ ability to compete in Canada and other markets. He also noted that while Mexico has been a great partner, it has still not fully met its commitments to protect common cheese names such as “parmesan” and “feta.”
USMCA mandates a “joint review” in 2026, offering the U.S. government an opportunity to negotiate solutions to the current shortcomings in dairy trade.
“For U.S. dairy producers exports are critical not just for growth but for survival, and we all agree it must continue. But a firm base depends on Canada upholding their end of the bargain, and on preserving our fully open trade flows with Mexico,” continued Vander Schaaf. “The U.S. dairy industry is counting on Congress and the Administration to help us fix the issues that I have laid out today, and to secure a better, stronger USMCA for American dairy farmers.”
Vander Schaaf’s testimony also builds on the Feb. 5 launch of The Agricultural Coalition for USMCA. Co-led by USDEC and NMPF, the Coalition is advocating for the strengthening and renewal of USMCA.
A link to the written testimony can be found here.
U.S. Dairy Supports Launch of New Ag Coalition for USMCA
The National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council co-led today’s launch of “The Agricultural Coalition for USMCA,” an industry-wide effort to support the strengthening and renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, mandates a “joint review” in 2026, which allows the countries to consider potential changes to the agreement. Since the stakeholder engagement process began in October 2025, the U.S. dairy industry has spoken to the importance of the agreement, while stressing that certain critical shortcomings must be addressed.
“USMCA has helped grow vital export opportunities that support dairy farm incomes across the country,” Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF, said. “Unfortunately, Canada has clearly not upheld their end of the deal and Mexico needs to fully implement USMCA commitments to respect our use of common cheese names. We look forward to working with the Administration during the review to ensure our trading partners honor their commitments so the agreement can best deliver for dairy farmers.”
“USMCA has been critical to maintaining strong export demand for U.S. dairy farmers, manufacturers and exporters, providing greater opportunities in the Mexican market in particular,” Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC, said. “At the same time, persistent market access barriers, particularly in Canada, limit the full potential of the agreement and must be addressed to ensure that U.S. dairy exporters receive the benefits they were promised.”
The U.S. dairy industry exported about $3.6 billion in dairy products to Canada and Mexico in 2024, which accounts for about 44 percent of total export value. At the same time, USMCA has fallen short in certain key areas. USDEC and NMPF will continue to fight for several priorities in the review, including through the Coalition:
- Combatting Canada’s continued manipulation of its administration of dairy tariff-rate quotas, denying U.S. exporters the meaningful market access guaranteed under USMCA.
- Tackling Canada’s circumvention of USMCA dairy protein export disciplines, which has resulted in continued offloading of artificially low-priced dairy proteins, undercutting U.S. products in both domestic and global markets.
- Ensuring that Mexico upholds its USMCA commitments to protect common cheese names such as “feta.” The issue is increasingly pressing as European Union trade negotiations seek to restrict the use of generic terms worldwide.
NMPF and USDEC will continue to work with trade negotiators to address USMCA noncompliance areas ahead of the July 1 joint review deadline.
NMPF Announces Staff Promotions
NMPF is excited to share several well-deserved promotions that recognize the outstanding contributions and continued growth of key team members:
- Maria Brockamp has been promoted to Senior Manager, Government Relations. Though relatively new to NMPF, Maria quickly demonstrated impressive capabilities, especially while taking on additional responsibilities during Paul’s absence.
- Jessi-Ryah Cordova has been promoted to Communications Manager, FARM Program. Since arriving at NMPF as FARM Communications Coordinator in April 2024, Jessi-Ryah Cordova has shown skills and abilities that go well beyond her day-to-day responsibilities, leading FARM Communications initiatives. By effectively harnessing FARM’s disparate pillars into a coherent whole that is greater than the sum of its parts.
- Miquela Hanselman has been promoted to Senior Director, Regulatory Affairs. Miquela has consistently taken on higher-level work and delivered excellent results. She has taken over leadership of NMPF’s engagement with the National Conference of Interstate Milk Shipments (NCIMS) and in 2025 successfully led our efforts on the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Beyond her core responsibilities, Miquela championed the creation of a summer internship program and has assumed a leadership role in organizing the Cheese Contest at the Annual Meeting.
- Tony Rice has been promoted to Senior Director, Trade Policy, in recognition of his expanded leadership and increased scope of responsibility across trade policy and supply chain issues. Over the past few years, Tony has played a vital role in advancing NMPF’s trade priorities on Capitol Hill and strengthening engagement with NMPF’s membership. Tony has earned widespread respect from members and colleagues alike for his leadership in developing practical tools and policy work that directly support members and NMPF–USDEC staff.
- Bobby Yi has been promoted to Vice President, Information Technology. In his 27 years at NMPF, Bobby has continually expanded his responsibilities and capabilities as our staff at NMPF and USDEC have grown. Most recently, he has orchestrated our transition to a new cloud hosting infrastructure and expanded our security capabilities.
- Stacey Young has agreed to shift from her temporary assignment to our new NEXT accounting staff. She will oversee the transition of work from our outsourced accounting team to in-house operations and provide additional budgetary support to the contract teams.
- David West will have the new title of Chief Operating Officer to better reflect his current responsibilities as an absolute integral member of the NMPF senior leadership team.
FARM Shares Animal Care Program Insights
FARM Animal Care, in partnership with ACER Consulting, released two reports in January related to program development and on-farm practices. The program continues to identify areas for advancing animal welfare centered on science and best practices.
The Animal Care Version 4.0 Data Highlights summarizes the characteristics of participating herds, presents performance measures on each Animal Care Program standard under Version 4.0, and highlights key strengths and areas for improvement.
Version 4.0 affirmed the program area’s commitment with clearer requirements, mandatory documentation, expanded animal-based measures and structured corrective action plans to improve consistency and accountability.
The Animal Care Program is now administering Version 5 standards and guidelines after FARM extended the Version 4 cycle due to COVID-19. Version 5 will be in effect through January 2028. FARM revises Animal Care standards every three years.
The Animal Care Stakeholder Survey was conducted to inform early discussions related to the development of Version 2028. The survey launched last July and was available for seven weeks, capturing 557 usable responses.
The NMPF Animal Health and Wellbeing Committee, the FARM Animal Care Task Force and Farmer Advisory Council reviewed initial survey results. The summary findings will be considered alongside committee review, scientific input, and additional engagement as the version cycle is developed. This survey supports informed discussion and decision-making and is not a standalone directive for program changes.
To stay up-to-date on Version 2028 development, visit the FARM website.
