Dairy Poised for an Action-Packed 2025

By Paul Bleiberg, Executive Vice President, Government Affairs, National Milk Producers Federation

2024 was a tumultuous year on the political front, and 2025 promises to be just as eventful on the policy front.

The 2024 election resulted in President-elect Donald Trump winning a second term while Republicans simultaneously won control of the U.S. Senate and held their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. With a governing trifecta in hand next year, Republicans are poised to put their stamp on many significant issues, several of which have direct implications for dairy farmers.

Picking up where this year left off, a new farm bill remains on the congressional to-do list. Lawmakers enacted a one-year extension before adjourning for the year, paving the way for House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson of Pennsylvania and incoming Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman of Arkansas to lead their respective panels in drafting long-term farm policy legislation next year.

This year’s House and Senate farm bill frameworks included numerous dairy priorities, such as requiring USDA to conduct mandatory manufacturing cost surveys every two years, prioritizing common food name protection in trade discussions, and allowing schools to serve nutrient-dense whole milk. This year’s extension ensures that the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program continues without disruption as the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) advocates for a new five-year farm bill next year that meets dairy’s needs.

Republicans will also turn their attention to extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, one of President-elect Trump’s signature first-term accomplishments. NMPF will urge Congress to continue several pieces of the 2017 law, including the Section 199A domestic manufacturing tax deduction that allows agricultural cooperatives to pass the proceeds directly back to their farmer-owners. Congress is likely to complete this process using the tool known as budget reconciliation, which allows for the consideration of certain tax and spending legislation not subject to the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster requirement.

Finally, Congress will need to address an overall government funding deadline in early 2025. This year’s draft House and Senate agriculture funding bills included several NMPF-backed provisions, including House language to reverse the reduction in the maximum monthly milk allotment in USDA’s final foods package rule for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) and Senate language mirroring the Innovative FEED Act to allow the Food and Drug Administration to review animal feed additives in a more efficient manner. While a short-term funding extension will require the new Congress to complete the full-year bills, the bills drafted this year will likely serve as the starting point for final negotiations next year.

Beyond these priorities, Congress and the incoming Trump Administration are likely to address major issues ranging from environmental policy to labor to trade. At each step of the way, NMPF will advocate for dairy farmers and the cooperatives they own as they seek to provide the U.S. and the world with wholesome, nutritious, and sustainably-produced milk and dairy products.

lve harmful barriers to trade, and promote the U.S. dairy industry as the global supplier of choice.


This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Dec. 26, 2024.

NMPF’s Galen Reviews 2024 Highlights, Latest on Farm Bill Extension

NMPF’s senior vice president Chris Galen outlines for Dairy Radio Now listeners how Congress is wrapping together a farm bill extension with a government funding bill, just a few days before Christmas, and how NMPF will work with Congress on a new farm bill early in 2025.  He also summarizes highlights for dairy farmers from 2024, including strong margins and near-record levels of dairy consumption.

October DMC Margin Recedes $0.40/cwt from September Record

The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program decreased by $0.40/cwt from September’s record level to $15.17/cwt. The October all-milk price was down $0.30/cwt from September to $25.20/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula rose again from September, by $0.10/cwt of milk, mostly on a higher price for premium alfalfa hay. 

The end of November dairy and grain futures indicated the DMC margin would average around $11.85/cwt for all of 2024. 

Record DMC margins and relatively high prices come as policy and market developments continue to keep the NMPF/U.S. Dairy Export Council Joint Economics team busy with market analysis and events 

NMPF Senior Director for Economic Research & Analysis Stephen Cain presented a market outlook to the ADPI Risk Management Seminar on Nov. 6 in Chicago and an FMMO and a farm bill update to Texas Farm Bureau virtually on Nov. 7. Will Loux gave an overview of the impact of H5N1 on the market to the Innovation Center Animal Care Committee virtually on Nov. 14.  

September DMC Margin Sets Second Consecutive Monthly Record

The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program rose by $1.85/cwt from August’s previous record level to $15.57/cwt, again the highest since margin protection became the basic dairy safety net program in January 2015.

The September all-milk price was $25.50/cwt, $1.90/cwt higher than the month before, while the DMC feed cost formula inched up from August by $0.05/cwt of milk, mostly on offsetting price moves for corn and premium alfalfa.

The end of October dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12/cwt for all of calendar year 2024.

August DMC Margin Sets Record

The Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) monthly margin rose by $1.40/cwt from the month before to $13.72/cwt, the highest since margin protection replaced the old price support program as the basic dairy safety net program in January 2015. The August all-milk price was $23.60/cwt, up $0.80/cwt from July, and the DMC feed cost formula dropped by $0.60/cwt of milk, driven mostly by a lower corn price.

Late September dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12.20/cwt for all of calendar year 2024.

FMMO Persistence Pays off for Farmers

  • USDA’s recommended FMMO decision incorporates NMPF proposals
  • Economics team member provided market outlooks and FMMO process updates across the country

NMPF’s Joint Economics Unit saw intense Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization in 2024, especially in the year’s earlier months. NMPF submitted its final legal brief to USDA in March, emphasizing that farmers are the reason the order system exists and that they should be the priority as USDA considers its final decision.

USDA released its recommended FMMO modernization plan July 1, agreeing in large part with the underlying principles of NMPF’s proposal. USDA’s biggest difference with NMPF was its establishment of a Class I mover for extended shelf-life products, which consists of the average of with an adjustable mover, even as most of the U.S. milk supply would revert to the “higher-of” formula in effect until 2019, as NMPF and its members advocated. NMPF-USDEC Joint Economics team members explain USDA’s recommended decision here.

Members of NMPF’s FMMO task force have reconvened to write comments on the recommended decision, which will be handed in by the Sept. 13 comment deadline for all stakeholders. USDA will review submissions and issue a final decision in November, followed by a producer referendum likely near the end of the year. Any changes will be implemented in early 2025, ending the formal FMMO modernization process.

Even as FMMO consumed team energy, members of the economics team traveled the country in 2024, providing expertise on changing market conditions throughout the year and updates on the FMMO modernization process.

Stephen Cain, senior director of research and economic analysis for NMPF, and Dr. Peter Vitaliano, vice president for economic policy and market research for NMPF, presented updates on the federal order modernization efforts to the NMPF Young Cooperators in February, the Southeast Milk Inc., Leadership Experience (SMILE) in May, and to the NMPF Board of Directors periodically. In August, Cain travelled to Detroit to update Michigan Milk Producers Association on the next steps in the process.

Producers were also updated on current and changing market conditions through 2024. Will Loux, senior vice president of global economic affairs for NMPF and USDEC, presented a domestic and export market outlook to South Dakota Dairy Producers in January and Dairy Farmers of America in July, as well as an update on the state of the dairy industry to the Idaho Milk Processors Association in August.

The economics team also met with the boards of United Dairymen of Arizona, Agri-Mark, Land O’Lakes, and Michigan Milk Producers Association to provide an update on Cooperatives Working Together renewal and modernization efforts. Cain and Dr. Vitaliano also provided outlook presentations for the National Ice Cream Mix Association annual meeting in January and to the American Butter Institute in April. Dr. Vitaliano also gave a butter-specific presentation to the joint American Dairy Products Institute-American Butter Institute annual conference in April.

Amid this backdrop, the dairy economy itself showed signs of improvement. The Dairy Margin Coverage Program, the main federal safety net for U.S. milk producers, saw its fourth highest ever margin in July, at $12.23/cwt, with the all-milk price at $22.80/cwt. End of August dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12.25/cwt for all of calendar year 2024.

June DMC Margin Gains $1.14/cwt to $11.66/cwt

The Dairy Margin Coverage Program margin in June was $11.66/cwt after adding $1.14/cwt over the previous month.

The June all-milk price was $22.80/cwt, up $0.80/cwt from May, and the DMC feed cost dropped by $0.34 for the month, mostly on a lower premium alfalfa price. The DMC margin calculated by USDA has risen $2.06/cwt over the past two months, reaching a level well above the threshold at which payments are generated by falling margins.

Futures-based forecasts at the end of July indicate that the DMC margin will average about $11.90/cwt during 2024, $0.40/cwt higher than similar forecasts indicated a month ago, with a peak in October, a sign that producers may have an opportunity to repair battered balance sheets over the next several months.

May DMC Margin Jumps to $10.52/cwt as Higher Prices Outstrip Feed Costs

The Dairy Margin Coverage Program rose sharply in May to levels well above the floor needed to trigger payments to dairy farmers, with milk prices rocketing past increasing feed costs to bolster dairy bottom lines.

Feed prices in May sharply reversed a falling trend of recent months to gain $0.58/cwt of milk from a month before, as measured by the DMC feed cost formula. All three formula components contributed measurably to the boost. Even so, May milk prices gained $1.50/cwt from April, rising to $22.00/cwt boosting the DMC margin by $0.92/cwt from the prior month to $10.52/cwt.

Available forecasts at the end of June indicate that the DMC margin will average about $11.50/cwt during 2024. This would be the second-highest average margin for a calendar year since margin protection became the basic federal safety net program for dairy.

April DMC Margin Little Changed from March

The April Dairy Margin Coverage Program margin was $9.60/cwt, down by $0.05/cwt from March, just above the maximum $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level for the second month in a row.

The April All-Milk price dropped from March by $0.10/cwt to $20.50/cwt, and the April DMC feed cost calculation dropped by $0.15/cwt, on a $11/ton lower premium alfalfa hay price. Small changes in the corn and soybean meal prices offset each other on a per hundredweight of milk basis in the formula.

Available forecasts at the end of May indicate an increasingly high likelihood that the DMC margin will remain considerably above $9.50/cwt for the rest of the year.

NMPF Secures Dairy Wins in House Farm Bill

The House Agriculture Committee-approved 2024 Farm Bill approved May 24 contains numerous NMPF-urged policy wins for dairy farmers, including an updated Dairy Margin Coverage Program and important support for its Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization proposal.

NMPF worked closely with House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson, R-PA, and committee members on the bill approved on a bipartisan vote of 33-21. It now moves to the House floor for further consideration.

“We commend Chairman Thompson and committee members from both parties for approving a 2024 House Farm Bill that includes critical dairy priorities that will help support and grow this industry,” said Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF in a statement. “We will do whatever we can to work with lawmakers in both chambers on a bipartisan basis to pass a new law as soon as possible, knowing that dairy is well-served by what the House Agriculture Committee approved today.”

Provisions benefiting dairy urged by NMPF are found across the bill’s titles, including ones that:

  • Extend the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) Program through 2029; update production history for participating dairies to be based on the highest production year of 2021, 2022, or 2023; and extend the ability for producers to receive a 25% premium discount for locking in five years of coverage;
  • Restore the “higher of” Class I mover to reinstate orderly milk marketing and require plant cost studies every two years to provide better data to inform future make allowance conversations, two key components of NMPF’s Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization proposal;
  • Support the bipartisan, House-passed Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act to reverse the underconsumption of nutritious milk in schools;
  • Boost funding for critical dairy trade promotion programs and protect the use of common food names worldwide;
  • Support voluntary, producer-led conservation programs, such as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, with dedicated funds for livestock operations and language encouraging states to prioritize methane-reducing practices;
  • Improve the certification of Third-Party Service Providers with technical expertise related to conservation planning to better assist producers participating in National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) programs;
  • Continue the Farm and Ranch Stress Assistance Network; and
  • Increase funding for animal health initiatives and programs.

During the committee markup, two NMPF-backed amendments were offered for discussion.

  • Dusty Johnson, R-SD, with support from Representative Nick Langworthy, R-NY, offered an amendment to allow farmer-owned cooperatives with 2,500 or fewer employees to access the Rural Energy for America Program for energy efficiency projects.
  • Representative Derrick Van Orden, R-WI, offered an amendment to increase the authorization for the Dairy Business Innovation Initiatives from $20 million to $36 million. Chairman Thompson committed to collaborating with the sponsors of both amendments as the farm bill advances through the legislative process.

As House legislation advanced, Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, D-MI, released a comprehensive farm bill framework on May 1 including key dairy provisions, such as:

  • Extending the DMC program through 2029, including the option for producers to lock in their coverage and receive a 25% premium discount, while also updating production history for participating dairies to be based on the highest production year of 2021, 2022, or 2023;
  • Requiring plant cost studies every two years to provide better data to inform future make allowance conversations;
  • Supporting voluntary, producer-led conservation programs, such as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, with dedicated funds for livestock operations and provisions supporting sustainable feed management; and
  • Protecting the use of common food names worldwide
  • Maintaining or boosting funding for key farm stress and animal health programs.

Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member John Boozman, R-AR, has announced plans to unveil his own farm bill framework in the coming weeks.

Small Changes in Costs, Prices Move March DMC Margin Above $9.50 Trigger

The DMC margin rose by $0.21/cwt from February to March to $9.65/cwt, putting it just above the maximum $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level. The March All-Milk price rose by $0.10/cwt to $20.70/cwt, and the March DMC feed cost calculation dropped by $0.11/cwt, almost entirely on a $7.00/ton lower premium alfalfa hay price.

The DMC Decision Tool on the USDA/FSA website forecasts that the DMC margin will remain above $9.50/cwt for the rest of 2024. The enrollment period for the 2024 Dairy Margin Program ended on Tuesday. For those who are signed up for 2024 coverage, payments will be made for January’s and February’s triggered payments, depending on coverage level.

February DMC Margin Gains Nearly $1/cwt Over January

The February margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program rose by $0.96/cwt from a month earlier to $9.44/cwt, triggering a payment of $0.06/cwt for coverage at the $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 level.

The rise was due to a $0.50/cwt increase in the February U.S. average all-milk price to $20.60/cwt, and a $0.46/cwt drop in the DMC feed cost formula, mostly as a result of lower corn prices.

Futures-based forecasts at the end of March indicated that DMC margins would remain mostly above the $9.50/cwt maximum Tier 1 coverage level during the remainder of the current calendar year, with possible brief dips below this level in late spring.