https://www.rfdtv.com/keep-it-flowing-u-s-per-capita-dairy-consumption-returns-to-1950s-levels
NMPF Executive Vice President for Communications & Industry Relations Alan Bjerga discusses new USDA data showing that per-capita dairy consumption among Americans is back to 1950s levels, in an interview with RFD-TV. Robust holiday sales could push consumption to even higher levels. “We can do this, America,” Bjerga said.
By Miquela Hanselman, Director of Regulatory Affairs, National Milk Producers Federation
For several years, raw milk advocacy has been trickling into the mainstream. From fringe blog sites to state legislatures, proponents tout alleged health benefits and downplay the risk. Even as highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in dairy cattle this year has shown the importance of pasteurizing milk for consumer safety and confidence, it has ironically drawn more attention to raw milk, which is seeing rising consumption. And with a raw milk advocate nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, the issue is receiving new attention.
National dairy groups are united: Raw milk consumption poses serious potential health risks, and milk for public consumption should be pasteurized. But milk safety is a never-ending discussion, and it’s against that backdrop that a bedrock of consumer safety and industry cooperation, the Grade A Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO), turns 100 years old this year.
The PMO, along with the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments (NCIMS), is a cornerstone of the United States producing the safest, most nutritious dairy products in the world. The PMO was a game changer in reducing the risk of foodborne illness associated with dairy products, providing a model milk regulation program with uniform safety requirements that states could voluntarily adopt.
Alabama was the first state to adopt the milk ordinance in 1924, and support for the ordinance spread across the country. Today, the PMO is updated every other year through the NCIMS, which will be held next April in Minneapolis, Minn.
The biennial NCIMS event is a model for collaboration, bringing together federal public health officials, the Food and Drug Administration, state officials, and the dairy industry. It focuses on a more effective and efficient system of regulating the interstate shipment of milk products. One key issue sure to come up will be the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cattle. Proposals for any issue or topic area to be considered at the conference are due in mid-January.
The National Milk Producers Federation and its members remain committed to keeping milk safe and accessible to Americans, even as food safety discussions evolve. Feel free to reach out to info@nmpf.org with any questions. And when the discussion moves to Minneapolis this spring for NCIMS, we will be prepared.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Nov. 28, 2024.
U.S. trade policy has changed significantly since the United States last passed a new free trade agreement (FTA), all the way back in 2011. During the past decade, securing new agricultural market access has become more difficult as it has been frustrated at times by both a lack of support in Washington, D.C., as well as an unwillingness from our trading partners to engage in earnest negotiations.
Although the United States has at times proposed new regional pacts and secured more targeted trade expansions in specific sectors, these proposals were typically seen as unbalanced and ultimately were found to be lacking in terms of political support here at home. Unfortunately, this trend looks poised to continue to the detriment of U.S. dairy producers and exporters. Despite these headwinds, U.S. dairy (and agriculture) exports have grown exponentially over the last 15 years, due in key part to established FTAs, World Trade Organization access, and more targeted agreements, but also because the growth in consumer demand for our dairy products outside the U.S. has risen in parallel with greatly improved economic conditions since the recession of 2009.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House in January, the National Milk Producers Federation is examining how his second administration may approach trade policy and what it means for U.S. dairy producers.
Comprehensive trade agreements and tariffs
President Trump’s “America First” economic policy was the cornerstone of his trade policy decisions in his first term, and it is a trend expected to accelerate in a second term. The first Trump administration focused on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) — now the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — while also securing sectoral trade agreements with China and Japan and a pursuit of FTAs with the United Kingdom (UK) and Kenya. Negotiations with the UK faltered as a result of the enormous complexity of the UK’s exit from the European Union. Discussions with Kenya ended with the change from the Trump to Biden administrations. A resumption of trade negotiations with both could be explored under a second Trump administration in conjunction with Congress passing a renewal of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation.
New comprehensive trade agreements, or deals announced in specific sectors — along the lines of those pursued under Trump 1.0 — would open new markets for U.S. dairy producers. In contrast, tariff hikes imposed on trading partners invite the potential for retaliatory duties on U.S. dairy exports, exacerbating any competitive disadvantage that American dairy producers might face while reaching international customers.
USMCA review
President Trump’s renegotiation of NAFTA resulted in USMCA in 2020, with newly negotiated aspects of dairy products trade between the United States and Canada featured as a key element of the agreement. As USMCA prepares to enter its six-year mandatory review period in 2026, Canada’s persistent attempts to circumvent its dairy market access and protein export cap obligations will be front and center in the discussions, both on Capitol Hill and within the administration.
The role of Congress
While trade policy is largely driven by the executive branch, Congress will have a significant role in several areas over the next four years. In addition to any TPA discussion, there could also be a debate over China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. Congress will also want to have input regarding the USMCA’s 2026 review process, and a renewal of the trade title of the farm bill will influence dairy’s participation in U.S. food aid programs. Across these issues, the U.S. dairy community will have to make its voice heard to ensure that policymakers prioritize the issues that impact dairy producers and workers on the ground.
These are just a sample of the many trade issues that NMPF, the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), and their allies will prioritize in the Trump administration. With the backing of more than 26,000 dairy farms and millions of additional workers, NMPF is confident that it will be able to work with Congress and the administration to pursue new market access, resolve harmful barriers to trade, and promote the U.S. dairy industry as the global supplier of choice.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Nov. 7, 2024.
By Allison Wilton, Coordinator, Economic Policy & Global Analysis, NMPF
High prices are supposedly the cure for high prices. That may not be the case with beef-on-dairy.
In recent years, the popularity of crossbred calves has grown exponentially as dairy farmers faced tight margins and beef cattle fetched record prices. Margins have improved on the dairy side, but the beef market has shown few signs of cooling down, suggesting a dairy herd boom is unlikely to materialize.
The beef herd is typically cyclical in nature, even as it has steadily shrunk since the 1990s. It’s now the smallest since 1951, leaving little supply cushion when weather or markets cause disruption. Droughts in 2022 and 2023 pushed many ranchers to liquidate herds; heifer and cow cull rates climbed in 2022 (up 4.8% and 10.9%, respectively), sparking the current cycle of high prices. Today, even with sky-high beef prices, calves on the ground at the beginning of 2024 were down 2.7% from the year earlier.
With drought in decline, ranchers may be looking to rebuild their herds. But a beef supply increase will take time. It will even result in higher prices in the short term as producers retain more heifers, which typically take at least two years to calve, and it will take another two years for those calves to be processed. Beef producers also operate under similar incentives as dairy farmers where today’s prices are pushing many to eschew a herd rebuild in favor of sending calves to market as soon as possible. These factors will all constrain the supply of beef animals for the next few years and support elevated prices for dairy-beef crosses.
Is change ahead?
Even as the beef herd is likely to remain constrained for the foreseeable future, two factors could still lower prices.
First, U.S. dairy farmers’ foray into beef crosses could shift supply dynamics in the beef market. U.S. farmers and ranchers purchased 9.4 million units of beef semen in 2023, according to the National Association of Animal Breeders, double as much as just five years ago. Notably, 85% of the beef semen purchased was by dairy farmers. Those calves have only recently made it to feedlots.
Second, several high-profile announcements of new feedlots specifically designed for dairy-beef crosses are likely to further entrench dairy’s investment in beef, permanently expanding the universe of potential beef production. Dairy could possibly cool off the beef market, but dairy’s own limitations to growing its herd naturally limit how many beef calves can come from dairy without seeing the dairy herd itself expand, which then would require switching away from beef — a highly unlikely outcome.
So, the beef herd is constrained for the foreseeable future and beef-on-dairy breeding has yet to provide enough supply to make today’s market more bearish. Demand for U.S. beef is unlikely to slow and remains relatively robust, even as consumers watch their spending. Meanwhile, global and domestic demand for protein, and specifically beef, has strengthened in recent years. U.S. beef exports grew 21% from 2015 to 2023. Tighter beef availability has limited exports so far this year (down 2% year-over-year), but growth remains the trend. Domestic demand has expanded as well, with domestic disappearance of beef 0.6% higher year-over-year in 2023, and per capita beef consumption has been rising as well.
With inflation cooling, consumers are likely to continue adding beef to their grocery carts. Until we see evidence that consumers are willing to switch from burgers to chicken or other proteins consistently, it appears beef prices are likely to remain strong and continue to limit the ability to grow the U.S. dairy herd in a meaningful way.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Oct. 17, 2024.
By Nicole Ayache, Chief Sustainability Officer, NMPF and FARM
The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Program will launch Environmental Stewardship (ES) Version 3 in the next few weeks, helping producers understand on-farm greenhouse gas emissions and reduction opportunities like never before.
FARM ES Version 3 uses a new scientific model, the Ruminant Farm Systems model. RuFaS offers the option to run scenarios to inform on-farm decisions on topics ranging from ration formulation to manure management strategies, cropping practices, and more. This update is timely, coming at a moment when U.S. dairy farmers are being asked to build on their legacy of natural resource stewardship and ramp up their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction activities.
An example of the Version 3 program
The demand for GHG reductions is real and growing. Sixteen of the U.S.’s top 20 dairy processors have set a climate reduction target with the Science Based Targets initiative the leading global framework for companies to set voluntary GHG reduction goals, or have committed to setting one in the near future. Ten processors have targets that include Scope 3 emissions, which means they are looking for farm-level reductions. The voluntary carbon marketplace also shows this increasing demand: According to an analysis by McKinsey and Company, demand for voluntary carbon credits could rise by a factor of 15 by 2030.
FARM ES isn’t a carbon marketplace. But the upgraded platform gives farmers the insights and tools to assess the opportunities offered by carbon markets, supply chain inset projects, cost-share or incentive programs, and more. Farmers need access to robust, scientifically sound information so they can weigh options for reducing emission in ways that make sense for their business. Opportunities to reduce emissions can also mean reduced costs and increased productivity. The scenario analysis of the upgraded FARM ES evaluation tool includes an estimate of milk productivity changes and will grow to include financial analyses as these become available through RuFaS.
Just as with FARM ES Version 2, the upgraded platform continues to emphasize accuracy across different farm sizes, geographies, and styles. The data inputs are designed to be farmer friendly, and the core data required is similar to Version 2. Farmers also have the flexibility, but are not required, to input optional data such as reproductive programs, culling information, and farm cropping practices for more tailored results on emissions and carbon sequestration estimates.
A key focus for the rest of the year will be to collect farmer, FARM evaluator, and other stakeholder feedback, with plans to further refine the tool in 2025.
Farmers can reach out to their FARM Program evaluator to gain access to a FARM ES Version 3 platform once it launches. If the farm’s cooperative or processor does not yet participate in FARM ES, or if a farm would like to conduct a self-evaluation, reach out to dairyfarm@nmpf.org for guidance.
To learn more about the development of Version 3 and current FARM Environmental Stewardship efforts, please visit our website.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Oct. 14, 2024.
NMPF Executive Vice President for Communications & Industry Relations Alan Bjerga discusses the reasons why dairy farmers may be an especially influential portion of the farm vote in an interview on RFD-TV. Because dairy farms tended to cluster around major metro areas, they’re disproportionately represented in some of this year’s most closely contested states in the competition for the White House.
NMPF President & CEO Gregg Doud said a port strike across the East Coast could cost dairy $32 million a week, and U.S. agriculture as a whole $320 million a week, in an interview with Fox Business. “We have got to make sure that we have these markets open,” Doud said, noting that even a short-term strike can cause longer-term disruptions.
Alan Bjerga, NMPF Executive Vice President of Communications, discusses how NMPF’s strong presence at the World Dairy Expo shows the breadth of the organization’s service to its members in an interview with WEKZ, Janesville, WI. NMPF-affiliated offerings include a panel on Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization, a seminar on succession planning, a look at women’s leadership in dairy and H5N1 biosecurity management on dairy farms. The National Dairy FARM Program will also be out in full force, Bjerga noted.
Shawna Morris, NMPF’s executive vice president for trade policy & global affairs, explains how Colombia moving to impose an additional tariff on U.S. milk powder exports is unjustified and unhelpful for dairy farmers and consumers in both nations. Morris speaks in an interview with RFD-TV.
By Jaime Castaneda, Executive Vice President, National Milk Producers Federation
NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) are working to preserve market access for American dairy exports to Colombia following the Colombian government’s abrupt July 5 decision to initiate a politically driven “subsidies and countervailing measures” investigation into milk powder imports form the United States.
The move has little to do with U.S. milk and everything to do with Colombia’s domestic politics. In an effort to reverse slipping popularity with voters, the Colombian government has decided to misuse trade tools usually reserved for private industry to counter legitimate damage from “dumped” product sold at below market rates. In contrast to this, Colombia’s government has instead launched this case on its own, alleging that U.S. milk powder exports from 2020 to 2023 were unduly subsidized by U.S. government programs and damaged Colombian dairy producers. Unfortunately, due to the investigation’s political nature, the Colombian government could impose tariffs on imported U.S. milk powder products as early as September 16. That would be certain to stifle trade to the market.
NMPF and USDEC have been working with U.S. exporting cooperatives and companies, legal teams, and the U.S. government to submit a strong, data-driven defense proving that this investigation is without merit.
In their counterarguments, NMPF and USDEC note that the investigation is baseless for many reasons, including:
Because of the political nature of this investigation, a fair result is not guaranteed, which means that U.S. government intervention may be necessary. NMPF and USDEC are urging U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to use all available tools to respond forcefully should Colombia impose tariffs on U.S. milk powder imports despite the lack of evidence meriting such a result.
Congress is also paying attention. A letter sent by the bipartisan leads of the U.S. House of Representative’s Agricultural Trade Caucus to the Colombian Ambassador to the United States highlights the U.S. dairy industry’s long-standing commitment to work with its Colombian counterparts and encouraged the two industries to work together to strengthen the dairy sectors in both countries instead of pursuing meritless investigations.
Colombia’s investigation will play out over months, starting with preliminary results and potential provisional measures as early as September 16, followed by a public hearing and additional comment periods.
At stake is $70 million in annual U.S. milk powder exports to Colombia.
While not a trivial amount by any means, this investigation could also set a dangerous precedent for like-minded governments to imitate. Over the past several years, protectionist sentiments have grown around the world, and Latin America is no exception. The region has become a battleground in the effort to preserve existing trade opportunities, flaring up from Peru and Ecuador to Brazil and Mexico.
While cooperating with the investigation, NMPF and USDEC continue to engage with policymakers and allied organizations to seek a positive conclusion. Regardless of which way this investigation turns out, it’s important for the United States to respond forcefully and let its trading partners know that such maneuvers will not be tolerated.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Sept. 5, 2024.
NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga talks about how dairy can offer nutritious solutions to all consumers in an interview with RFD-TV. The current drafting of a new version of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans is featuring concerns over lactose intolerance and the nutritional barrier it presents some consumers. Bjerga points out the wide range of low-lactose and lactose-free products, which represents an important part of dairy’s future.
