NMPF’s Bjerga on Dairy’s Recent Policy Wins

As the year comes to a close, the National Milk Producers Federation is applauding two recent measures that support the dairy industry. NMPF Senior Vice President of Communications Alan Bjerga spoke with RFD-TV’s own Janet Adkison about how the Growing Climate Solutions Act and Sustains Act benefit dairy farmers, and what USTR’s announcement of a new request for dispute settlement consultations with Canada means for U.S. dairy.

 

https://www.rfdtv.com/two-recent-measures-from-congress-and-ustr-are-giving-a-boost-to-dairy-farmers

China’s Dairy Demand May Be Sluggish in ’23

By Stephen Cain, Director of Research and Economic Analysis, NMPF.

Outside of cheese, China is the number one importer of essentially every major dairy product. Globally, the world’s most populated country purchases 27% of all traded dairy products on a milk solids basis. China accounts for roughly 20% of all U.S. dairy exports and nearly half of all U.S. dry whey exports.

All of this makes China an unquestionably important market; yet, over the last year, Chinese demand has been down significantly. Chinese milk solids imports over the last 12 months are down 16%, and they’re heavily down in skim milk powder (-20%), dry whey (-17%), and whole milk powder (-24%). Two key pieces that have led to the pullback are high stockpiles and COVID-19 lockdowns.

Following the onset of the pandemic and wanting to ensure adequate supplies on hand, China built up some impressive stocks, especially in skim milk power and dry whey. From mid-2020 through mid-2021, Chinese milk solids imports climbed 32% over the preceding 12 months. For the same time period, skim milk powder and dry whey imports rose 32% and 50%, respectively.

This high purchase volume outpaced demand and led to stock build up. These high stocks, coupled with then-high global prices, led China to pull back from the global market and instead work down its stockpiles. That largely kept Chinese purchasing depressed over the past year. Encouragingly, stocks are now approaching more normal levels, which supports China returning to the market, especially for skim milk powder and dry whey.

More COVID-19 lockdowns throughout China are also plaguing demand. While the rest of the world moves on from the pandemic and reverts to pre-COVID-19 life, China seems to be charging in the opposite direction. The zero-COVID policy in China has led to extreme measures in the country, with huge swaths of the population being locked down as the country continues its losing battle against the disease.

Earlier this year, Shanghai, the largest city in China with roughly 25 million residents, was put in lockdown for two consecutive months. Since then, lockdowns have only increased in number and severity, with some estimates as of late October stating there were more than 200 million people affected by lockdowns nationwide.

While many agree China relaxing its zero-COVID approach would be beneficial, rising cases in the country suggest that’s unlikely to occur. The country is facing the highest rate of new cases since the start of the pandemic, which means lockdowns and tough restrictions are only going to become more commonplace. That’s hitting dairy demand. Restaurants and the food service sector are hugely important to dairy consumption in China, but that consumption avenue is being restricted as consumers are increasingly unable to leave their homes. Until lockdowns and restrictions ease, Chinese dairy demand will continue to be challenged.

Source: USDEC, Our World in Data

Dairy is only one part of a Chinese economy that’s facing headwinds. A limited gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook, a teetering real estate sector, and depressed, COVID-19-driven demand from lockdowns are creating a challenged economic outlook. The 2022 GDP forecast is estimated at 3.2%, which would make for one of the worst performances in nearly half a century; 2023 looks only slightly better, with forecast growth of around 4.4%.

Similarly, Chinese dairy demand in 2023 is likely to see similar sluggish growth. Despite the melancholy economic outlook and lockdown projections, Chinese imports in 2023 will likely be up, but not at substantial volumes, and certainly not same at the growth rate we saw in 2021. As stocks are depleted and domestically produced products (which are largely more expensive than imports) fail to meet demand, China will have to return to the global market. The biggest swing factor, though, remains COVID-19 lockdowns. If China doubles down on lockdowns, demand will likely continue to be depressed and imports will be challenged. Should they ease, China will certainly need product, and greater imports will follow — and that would be good news for U.S. exporters.

 

This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Nov. 28, 2022.

facebook sharing button
twitter sharing button
linkedin sharing button

October CWT-Assisted Dairy Export Sales Totaled 5.1 Million Pounds

CWT member cooperatives secured 39 contracts in October, adding five million pounds of American-type cheeses and 77,000 pounds of cream cheese to CWT-assisted sales in 2022. In milk equivalent, this is equal to 47 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis. These products will go to customers in Asia, Central America, Europe and Middle East-North Africa, and will be shipped from October through April 2022.

CWT-assisted 2022 dairy product sales contracts year-to-date total 86.1 million pounds of American-type cheese, 657,000 pounds of butter, 7.6 million pounds of cream cheese and 30.3 million pounds of whole milk powder. This brings the total milk equivalent for the year to 1.090 billion pounds on a milkfat basis.

Exporting dairy products is critical to the viability of dairy farmers and their cooperatives across the country. Whether or not a cooperative is actively engaged in exporting cheese, butter, anhydrous milkfat, cream cheese, or whole milk powder, moving products into world markets is essential. CWT provides a means to move domestic dairy products to overseas markets by helping to overcome U.S. dairy’s trade disadvantages.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT will pay export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by the submission of the required documentation.

Live, from the Dairy Bar, it’s NMPF!

 

NMPF Senior Vice President of Communications Alan Bjerga gives an impromptu tour of the Dairy Bar and the Joint Annual Meeting in Denver. From delicious products to critical information, the Dairy Bar has it all — and the meeting itself resulted in gains for dairy producers, as detailed in this interview with RFD-TV.

September CWT-Assisted Dairy Export Sales Totaled 12.2 Million Pounds

CWT member cooperatives secured 62 contracts in September, adding 11 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 198,000 pounds of butter and 403,000 pounds of cream cheese to CWT-assisted sales in 2022. In milk equivalent, this is equal to 113 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis. These products will go to customers in Asia, Central America, Middle East-North Africa, South America and Oceania and will be shipped from September 2022 through March 2023.

CWT-assisted 2022 dairy product sales contracts year-to-date total 81.1 million pounds of American-type cheese, 657,000 pounds of butter, 7.5 million pounds of cream cheese and 30.3 million pounds of whole milk powder. This brings the total milk equivalent for the year to 1.044 billion pounds on a milkfat basis.

Exporting dairy products is critical to the viability of dairy farmers and their cooperatives across the country. Whether or not a cooperative is actively engaged in exporting cheese, butter, anhydrous milkfat, cream cheese, or whole milk powder, moving products into world markets is essential. CWT provides a means to move domestic dairy products to overseas markets by helping to overcome U.S. dairy’s trade disadvantages.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT will pay export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by the submission of the required documentation.

NMPF Active in Resolving Supply Chain Disruptions

NMPF and USDEC ramped up outreach efforts to Congress and the administration last month on the need to improve freight transportation services to prevent significant economic difficulties and ensure that American farmers can continue to feed the world.

In detailed comments to the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) submitted on Sept. 14, NMPF and USDEC asked the agency to declare the current cargo congestion and inadequate oceans freight transportation service an emergency situation.

The comments emphasized results from a survey of NMPF and USDEC members which noted ongoing problems in export shipping despite the implementation of key provisions of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act this summer. For instance, 65 percent of survey respondents indicated that unreasonable detention and demurrage fees continue to be a challenge; more than half have had recent experiences with cancelled sailings; and a massive 92 percent responded that they continue to experience cancelled or rolled vessel bookings.

Based on those survey results and additional reports of logistical issues elsewhere, NMPF and USDEC urged the FMC to require ocean carriers and terminal operators to provide to shippers, rail carriers and other parties advanced scheduling, storage and other information that would greatly improve on-time shipping. The Federation encouraged the FMC to update its metrics for determining emergency situations in the future.

Additionally, ahead of a rail labor agreement reported Sept. 15, NMPF met with the administration and signed onto a Sept. 8 letter to Congressional leadership urging federal action if negotiations failed to prevent a lockout or strike. Ensuring that rail access remains available to deliver input supplies to dairy farms and finished products from plant to port has been a critical NMPF priority over the past few months.

NMPF will continue to press Congress and the administration, as well as private sector actors, to help address the lingering challenges in the dairy export supply chain.

NMPF and USDEC Join Chilean Dairy Industry to Advance Policy Priorities Internationally

The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and the Chilean Federacion Nacional de Productores de Leche (Fedeleche) today finalized an agreement that will facilitate better sharing of knowledge and information and foster collaboration as the three groups advocate for science-based standards and guidelines in agricultural trade policy across the world.

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) establishes a set of objectives that will guide cooperation in supporting common policy priorities in international forums. The collaboration lasts through 2024 and includes a strong focus on establishing events, seminars and conferences to improve mutual understanding on issues such as sustainability, food systems and global trade.

“Dairy producers in the United States and Chile share many of the same values and policy priorities, and will benefit greatly from this partnership,” said Jim Mulhern, president and CEO of NMPF. “We’re excited to work alongside USDEC and Fedeleche to proactively set commonsense food and ag policy.”

“We are delighted at this opportunity to strengthen our relationship with Chilean agricultural producers,” said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. “Through this agreement, we are in a better position to ensure that international trade and regulatory policy is reasonable, fair and based in science.”

“At Fedeleche, we value free trade based on clear and fair rules. We are looking forward to working with the American dairy sector to achieve structural reforms that counter the protectionism that we encounter so frequently,” said Marcos Winkler Mayer, president of the Fedeleche. “We celebrate this partnership and are in a better place to serve American and Chilean agriculture and dairy when we work together.”

The MOU between NMPF, USDEC and Fedeleche complements an agreement signed earlier this year with Sociedad Rural Argentina, which provides USDEC and NMPF with an additional avenue to communicate and engage with stakeholders in Latin America.

Trade: NMPF Advances Better Policy Amid Record Exports

Highlights

  • Championed the Ocean Shipping Reform Act as it became law and worked to ease record port congestion and fees.
  • Led efforts to advance the U.S. government’s initiation of a second case against Canada for their non-compliance with USMCA’s dairy provisions.
  • Successfully held at bay several proposed policies to limit dairy trade in Latin America.

NMPF’s work to expand export market opportunities for U.S. dairy products has helped support a record $4.8 billion in dairy exports in the first half of 2022, a year-over-year increase of 27 percent. NMPF collaborates with the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) to advance NMPF member interests.

President and CEO Jim Mulhern joined President Biden at the White House in June to welcome the signing of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) into law. The legislation, aimed at easing the port congestion plaguing dairy and other exporters, caps NMPF and USDEC’s year-long efforts to help shape and advance the bill in Congress.

In addition to new protections for dairy exporters, including limits on fees incurred outside of exporters’ control, the new law directs the Federal Maritime Commission to draft additional regulations to ensure ocean carriers are not unduly refusing to transport U.S. exports. NMPF has also pressed the administration for measures to expand shipping equipment availability and iron out logistics challenges, including securing key port pop-up sites to facilitate the processing of shipping containers.

NMPF and USDEC also continue to be vocal advocates for free trade agreements that lower barriers for dairy exports, with the Biden Administration heeding NMPF’s calls to ensure existing deals are strongly enforced. Part of this year’s effort included successfully securing U.S. government support for a second dispute settlement panel over Canada’s refusal to expand dairy market access in accordance with its U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement commitments.

Additional efforts have focused on Mexico and Central and South America as protectionist sentiments continue to surge from Mexico to Chile. NMPF has focused on ensuring existing market access opportunities are preserved in the face of regulatory changes and anti-trade policies.

In Mexico, after deep engagement from NMPF and USDEC, new Mexican milk powder regulations were implemented on July 8 in a manner that allowed trade to keep flowing. The trade policy team also helped ensure that Panama’s appeals to shirk its dairy market access FTA obligations were rejected by the U.S. government and to push back against anti-import sentiment in Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and other key regional markets. As additional countries retreat inward and embrace protectionist stances toward trade, NMPF strives to ensure counterproductive policies that would limit the ability of consumers to access U.S. dairy products are met with strong opposition.

Dairy Defined Podcast: Ports Momentum Must Continue, NMPF’s Rice Says

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act is now law, but much more is needed to ensure reliable exports of U.S. dairy products to the overseas markets that represent the industry’s future, said Tony Rice, trade policy manager for NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council, in a Dairy Defined podcast released today.

“Our international customers demand U.S. dairy products,” said Rice. “Our competitors, mostly the EU and New Zealand, they’ve shown that they’re not going to be able to keep pace in the coming years. So it makes all the more important that these supply chain issues get ironed out, and hopefully sooner rather than later.”

Rice explains the complexities of the challenges facing U.S. port traffic, why additional public policy changes are essential, and how NMPF is leading agriculture’s efforts for change. The full podcast is here. You can also find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and Amazon Music. A transcript is also available below. Broadcast outlets may use the MP3 file below. Please attribute information to NMPF.

NMPF Board Member Urges Congressional Focus on Agricultural Trade

Sheryl Meshke, co-president and CEO of Associated Milk Producers Inc. and a member of NMPF’s board of directors, told a Senate subcommittee on June 9 that the U.S. government must pursue additional market access opportunities and address export supply-chain delays in order for the U.S. dairy industry to keep up with its global competitors.

“In pursuing exports, the U.S. dairy industry faces experienced and well-established competitors who have been exceptionally active with free trade agreements,” Meshke told the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodities, Risk Management, and Trade. “The U.S. needs to get back in the game and craft an approach to pursuing comprehensive trade agreements.”

Meshke also emphasized the importance of enforcing existing trade agreements, particularly U.S. dairy export access to the Canadian market under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

American dairy risks losing its competitiveness, as the global playing field slowly tilts against the United States due to competitors’ trade agreements with key dairy importing markets, Meshke noted in her testimony. She also said U.S. trade negotiators need to target priority markets for expanded access, including Southeast Asia, Japan, China, the Middle East and the United Kingdom.

Meshke also emphasized the importance of combating non-tariff trade barriers, particularly the European Union’s (EU) aggressive efforts to confiscate food and beverage names in global markets by abusing geographical indications systems. She urged a strong defense of common food names: “We can’t wait any longer for the U.S. government to proactively defend the use of common food and beverage names against aggressive global efforts by the EU to restrict the use of generic terms we rely on.”

“As Sheryl outlined so well, we are now seeing dairy consumption grow at exceptional rates in many markets around the world,” said Jim Mulhern, president and CEO of NMPF. “The U.S. dairy industry is well-positioned to meet the expanding global demand for sustainably produced dairy products. But to seize those opportunities, we must take a leadership role along with like-minded countries – advancing policies and crafting trade agreements that can deliver real benefits for dairy farmers.”

NMPF Secures OSRA Passage, Looks to Next Steps

President and CEO Jim Mulhern participated in a White House ceremony on June 16 to celebrate President Biden’s signing of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA).

The new law comes after more than a year’s worth of intense effort and has been among NMPF’s highest priorities, bolstered through its partnership with the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and a joint member export supply chain working group. The organizations helped to build an influential coalition of agricultural and transportation allies, crafting a bipartisan group of congressional supporters and educating the administration about dairy’s export supply chain crisis.

OSRA directs the Federal Maritime Commission to craft regulations that prohibit ocean carriers from “unreasonably” declining shipping opportunities for U.S. exports and requires certification of detention and demurrage fees that have been incurred outside of U.S. exporters’ control. The commission must also craft regulations that bar retaliation against U.S. shippers. To learn more about additional OSRA protections and the FMC’s pivotal role, see NMPF’s Member Alert here.

OSRA’s passage shifts NMPF’s and USDEC’s focus to the next, equally critical step of ensuring the legislation is swiftly implemented and that the maritime commission develops strong rules to crack down on carrier misbehavior. NMPF and USDEC will be heavily engaged in rulemaking processes and will continue to push for robust congressional oversight of the implementation phase.

NMPF and USDEC is also continuing work with allied groups to address delays, congestion, equipment and labor shortages, major gaps in data, high costs and other issues hampering U.S. exports. As part of those ongoing efforts, NMPF’s Executive Vice President for Policy Development and Strategy Jaime Castaneda participated in the Agriculture Transportation Coalition’s 34th Annual Meeting in June, taking part in the members-only strategy session on agricultural export priorities to identify additional steps in resolving the ongoing crisis.

Trade Success Shows How Patience, Persistence Pays

An invitation to the White House to represent dairy farmers and their cooperatives at the signing of important legislation that helps the dairy community is an honor. The chance to attend, along with U.S. Dairy Export Council CEO Krysta Harden and other ag leaders, the signing of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act last month was an opportunity to highlight dairy’s hard work to alleviate the shipping crisis that has impeded exports for the past year.

But to be honest, a greater honor comes from working with the NMPF and USDEC team that over the past year has led efforts in dairy and across agriculture to enact the legislation. And that effort’s success is only one more accomplishment in one of the biggest long-term successes of dairy and dairy policy over the past generation – the emergence of the United States as a critical player in international markets. This huge export growth boosts milk prices, alleviates pressure on an industry whose productivity outpaces domestic population growth, and feeds the world with the nutritious products Americans have long enjoyed.

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act sets in motion a series of new rules and regulations governing ocean freight shippers that the Federal Maritime Commission must implement over the next year. These rules should help dairy-product exporters get more of their goods onto ships that recently have been heading to Asia empty, trying to meet import demands rather than fill their hulls with the goods that create U.S. jobs.

Agriculture, a rare American industry that ships out more than it brings in, has suffered from practices that have created unnecessary, costly delays to serving overseas consumers. While this legislation alone won’t smooth out all the issues with supply chains that are struggling with even deeper structural issues, it will help dairy build upon the global competitiveness that made 2021 a record year for U.S. dairy exports.

That’s gratifying. It’s also in keeping with the longer-term story of how patient, relentless efforts in dairy-trade policy have helped build an emerging export powerhouse.

Day-to-day, few areas of the many in which NMPF serves the interests of its members can be as bedeviling as trade. U.S. dairy farmers gain a key win against Canada – and Canada responds by dragging its feet even further. A judge stands up for the integrity of common cheese names – and the European Union persists in its shenanigans. These are the sorts of setbacks and stonewalls that can obscure progress.

But the progress is real. In 1995, 4.4 percent of U.S. milk solids were exported to foreign destinations. Last year, it was 17.3 percent – nearly one out of every six gallons of milk. U.S. dairy trade set records in volume and value in 2021, international market share is increasing, and American milk producers stand to benefit more than farmers anywhere else from the world’s growing appetite for dairy as competitors craft policies that hinder their own dairy industries – a path we simply won’t let happen here.

That growth has been crucial as gains in U.S. dairy production have outstripped domestic population growth. It’s safe to say that, without the emergence of international markets, milk prices would be dramatically lower, and much of the current size and regional diversity of U.S. dairy farms would be lost due to intolerable economic conditions.

U.S. dairy exports have risen broadly in part because we sweat the details – the attentiveness NMPF and USDEC showed in pushing for the Ocean Shipping Reform Act is characteristic of its approach for years. Decades of diligent work on trade has built a brighter present for dairy, even though that work requires patience and persistence that at times would seem to go beyond reason.

The progress we’ve seen on trade has happened because of the painstaking work of beneficial free-trade agreements; of tariff reductions that improved access; of robust legal efforts that have successfully defended U.S. dairy in international law; and because of the re-orientation of the industry toward greater exports that were made possible because trade policy created a more hospitable environment in which to invest.

Foresight by earlier NMPF and dairy check-off program leaders – and a lot of hard work — built the U.S. Dairy Export Council, acting worldwide to promote U.S. products. The same can be said for the industry’s sustainability initiatives, which help U.S. dairy farmers be the most sustainable, and thus most competitive, milk producers in the world.

And just as past efforts have paid huge dividends, present and future ones will as well, from seeking continued opportunities through initiatives like the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to telling the world the compelling story of U.S. dairy through hosting the International Dairy Federation’s annual summit in Chicago in 2023. It’s the first visit of that global conference to the United States in three decades, and it’s being brought here through the efforts of Dairy Management Inc., USDEC and NMPF, after the previous host – China – backed out.

Dairy’s representation at the White House at the signing of policy that will advance this industry shows how much we matter in policy arenas. But it’s also only one part of a much larger, much more important effort. Through resilience, progress and determination to build a better future for U.S. dairy, we’ve come a long way. And whatever the specific successes – or momentary frustrations – may be, dairy’s advance will continue.