Tag: milk prices
Cheese, Butter and Yogurt Sales Shine as Milk Production Slips
2024 Dairy Data Highlights
DMC Margin Drops Again – to Third Highest Ever
The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program lost $0.88/cwt from a month before, yet, at $14.29/cwt, still came in as the third highest since margin protection became the basic safety net program for dairy in 2015.
The November U.S. average all-milk price dropped by $1/cwt from October to $24.20/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula declined by $0.12/cwt. A lower soybean meal price more than offset a higher corn price; the premium alfalfa hay price was little changed.
The end of December dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12.50/cwt for all of calendar year 2025, which would be $0.60/cwt higher than the 2024 annual average and well above the trigger under which payments begin.
Vitaliano’s Valedictory: Economist Shares Thoughts on Dairy’s Evolution
After nearly four decades as an economist at NMPF, Dr. Peter Vitaliano is retiring at the end of the year. He predicts a bright future for the industry.
“The U.S. dairy industry produces a huge variety of great products, for which consumption is continuing to grow,” Vitaliano said in a Dairy Defined Podcast. “It has very progressive farms and farmers, and great leadership amongst our organizations, and great organizations. That has been the case when I came, it’s the case now, and it’s going to be the case for many years in the future.”
Vitaliano, NMPF’s longtime chief economist, reflects on the evolution of policy challenges for the dairy industry in the podcast, explaining how shifts in the industry have created greater unity – and a more effective NMPF. For more of the Dairy Defined podcast, you can find and subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify under the podcast name “Dairy Defined.”
Media outlets may use clips from the podcast on the condition of attribution to the National Milk Producers Federation.
U.S. Dairy Consumption Strengthens Amid Record Retail Prices for Butter and Yogurt
NMPF’s Bjerga Discusses Rising Dairy Consumption
https://www.rfdtv.com/keep-it-flowing-u-s-per-capita-dairy-consumption-returns-to-1950s-levels
NMPF Executive Vice President for Communications & Industry Relations Alan Bjerga discusses new USDA data showing that per-capita dairy consumption among Americans is back to 1950s levels, in an interview with RFD-TV. Robust holiday sales could push consumption to even higher levels. “We can do this, America,” Bjerga said.
Dairy Exports Rebound and Production Edges Up in September
NMPF’s Bleiberg Analyzes November Election Results
NMPF’s chief lobbyist Paul Bleiberg assesses for listeners of Dairy Radio Now how the election of former president Donald Trump, along with a Senate majority led by the GOP, will impact dairy policy and agricultural issues in Washington and in farm country going forward.
September DMC Margin Sets Second Consecutive Monthly Record
The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program rose by $1.85/cwt from August’s previous record level to $15.57/cwt, again the highest since margin protection became the basic dairy safety net program in January 2015.
The September all-milk price was $25.50/cwt, $1.90/cwt higher than the month before, while the DMC feed cost formula inched up from August by $0.05/cwt of milk, mostly on offsetting price moves for corn and premium alfalfa.
The end of October dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12/cwt for all of calendar year 2024.
Fluid Milk Consumption Grows Amid Milk Production Decline
Beef dynamics may hinder dairy herd growth
By Allison Wilton, Coordinator, Economic Policy & Global Analysis, NMPF
High prices are supposedly the cure for high prices. That may not be the case with beef-on-dairy.
In recent years, the popularity of crossbred calves has grown exponentially as dairy farmers faced tight margins and beef cattle fetched record prices. Margins have improved on the dairy side, but the beef market has shown few signs of cooling down, suggesting a dairy herd boom is unlikely to materialize.
The beef herd is typically cyclical in nature, even as it has steadily shrunk since the 1990s. It’s now the smallest since 1951, leaving little supply cushion when weather or markets cause disruption. Droughts in 2022 and 2023 pushed many ranchers to liquidate herds; heifer and cow cull rates climbed in 2022 (up 4.8% and 10.9%, respectively), sparking the current cycle of high prices. Today, even with sky-high beef prices, calves on the ground at the beginning of 2024 were down 2.7% from the year earlier.
With drought in decline, ranchers may be looking to rebuild their herds. But a beef supply increase will take time. It will even result in higher prices in the short term as producers retain more heifers, which typically take at least two years to calve, and it will take another two years for those calves to be processed. Beef producers also operate under similar incentives as dairy farmers where today’s prices are pushing many to eschew a herd rebuild in favor of sending calves to market as soon as possible. These factors will all constrain the supply of beef animals for the next few years and support elevated prices for dairy-beef crosses.
Is change ahead?
Even as the beef herd is likely to remain constrained for the foreseeable future, two factors could still lower prices.
First, U.S. dairy farmers’ foray into beef crosses could shift supply dynamics in the beef market. U.S. farmers and ranchers purchased 9.4 million units of beef semen in 2023, according to the National Association of Animal Breeders, double as much as just five years ago. Notably, 85% of the beef semen purchased was by dairy farmers. Those calves have only recently made it to feedlots.
Second, several high-profile announcements of new feedlots specifically designed for dairy-beef crosses are likely to further entrench dairy’s investment in beef, permanently expanding the universe of potential beef production. Dairy could possibly cool off the beef market, but dairy’s own limitations to growing its herd naturally limit how many beef calves can come from dairy without seeing the dairy herd itself expand, which then would require switching away from beef — a highly unlikely outcome.
So, the beef herd is constrained for the foreseeable future and beef-on-dairy breeding has yet to provide enough supply to make today’s market more bearish. Demand for U.S. beef is unlikely to slow and remains relatively robust, even as consumers watch their spending. Meanwhile, global and domestic demand for protein, and specifically beef, has strengthened in recent years. U.S. beef exports grew 21% from 2015 to 2023. Tighter beef availability has limited exports so far this year (down 2% year-over-year), but growth remains the trend. Domestic demand has expanded as well, with domestic disappearance of beef 0.6% higher year-over-year in 2023, and per capita beef consumption has been rising as well.
With inflation cooling, consumers are likely to continue adding beef to their grocery carts. Until we see evidence that consumers are willing to switch from burgers to chicken or other proteins consistently, it appears beef prices are likely to remain strong and continue to limit the ability to grow the U.S. dairy herd in a meaningful way.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Oct. 17, 2024.
