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The Numbers Don’t Lie – Plant-Based Beverages Losing Market Share to Milk

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

Attention to everyone who values accuracy over propaganda: The next time you read a news article that states “milk is losing market share to plant-based alternatives,” please send the reporter, the editor, anyone who will listen, a link to this column.

Because any reputable news organization corrects fact errors – and as of this year, that statement, long accepted as the “inevitable” outcome of “innovation,” is no longer true. In the beverage marketplace, milk isn’t just beating plant-based on nutrition, price, overall sales and consumption volume – it’s increasing its market share too.

First, the bad news. Milk’s growing relative strength isn’t because people are drinking more of it. Even though fluid milk continues to outpace fake milk sales by nearly nine to one, consumption is down this year, like it has most every year since baby boomers left elementary school and all types of beverages, not just plant-based alternatives, multiplied in number and further segmented the beverage market. Through July 9 – just over halfway through 2023 – fluid milk retail sales volume (overwhelmingly cow’s milk, with just a pinch of goat milk for an animal-based alternative) was 1.62 billion gallons, down 3.4 percent from the year-earlier period, according to research firm Circana Group, which objectively reports sales figures via bar codes and is the retail industry standard for grocery-sales data.

Wish it weren’t true, but … but …

But how does that compare to the “dairy alternative” universe – the one where heavily processed, over-priced nut juices are marketed as healthy, climate-conscious “milks”? The one where dishonest marketers crow about how fake milks are on the rise while boring ole’ actual milk is a thing of the past? Year-to-date, they’ve sold 182 million gallons of the stuff, a number that’s down … um … you read it here first … 6.6 percent from one year ago. Because plant-based consumption is falling even faster, true dairy milk is extending its already dominant lead. So far this year, real milk holds 89.9 percent of the total milk-and-fake-milk market, up from 89.6 percent last year.

Tough to get your brain around? That’s understandable – false narratives are difficult to dispel. But the truth will set you free – and it tastes better, too.

Maybe consumers are figuring out that overpriced, under-nourishing flavor-of-the-month beverages weren’t the next frontier after all. Digging into the stats further: Almond drink, the darling of the 2010s, is still the plant-based category leader, but down 9.4 percent so far this year from a year ago. Oat beverages, the recent Next Big Thing, is up an anemic 1.8 percent – maybe because top peddler Oatly’s marketing antics are starting to leave a taste in people’s mouths that’s almost as bad as their product’s.

And soy-based beverages – the ones vegan advocates want in the federal school lunch program – are down 7.4 percent this year, even as the most popular milk variety, whole milk, also is kept out of school lunches because foolish ideas and bad science die hard.  That would be funny, if it weren’t so sad that whole milk, an obvious solution to nutrition and food waste problems in federal meals, gets short shrift in comparison to soy due to vegan ideology.

Maybe the “innovation” pitch was a lie all along. In many ways, nothing is new under the sun, or in the grocery aisle. Marketers and manufacturers have been taking water, adding stuff to it, bleaching it white and calling it “milk” for centuries. The latest scheme is admittedly less deadly than previous ones — but with doctors reporting malnourished children fed vegan “milk” by duped parents, it still has a real public health cost. That’s why dairy farmers have been calling on FDA to enforce its own standards of identity for decades, to largely deaf (though recently a little bit less deaf – or maybe we’ve just been louder) ears from the agency.

To be sure (and for clarification), all these statistics are based on consumption volume – what people actually drink – than sales values, the preferred measure of advocates for plant-based beverages that are more expensive than true dairy. By that measure, plant-based beverage sales are still up 5.8 percent year-to-date, compared to dairy’s decline of 1.2 percent. But that’s not because plant-based beverages are becoming more popular – it’s because they cost 9.2 percent more than a year earlier, compared to milk’s 2.2 percent. Isn’t inflation a magical thing? Even so, we expect that marketers will use that cherry-picked value to prop up the tired Death of Dairy narrative – and credulous journalists will pick up on it to justify their inaccurate articles.

Don’t let them do that. The numbers don’t lie – plant-based beverage consumption is on the decline, and claims otherwise are disingenuous. Keep this in mind as you watch for misinformation. Feel free to share this data to stop it.

NMPF Statement on USDA Federal Order Announcement

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

From NMPF Board Chairman Randy Mooney, a dairy farmer from Rogersville, MO:

Dairy farmers nationwide are grateful that USDA is moving forward by including the full scope of NMPF’s proposal to guide the dairy industry forward as it modernizes the Federal Milk Marketing Order system.

This recognition of NMPF’s consensus-based leadership allows us to continue the substantial momentum for change that we’ve achieved. Each piece of our proposal, from returning to the “higher-of” Class I mover as soon as possible, to updating both Class I price differentials and manufacturing cost allowances, has been crucial toward building that consensus, and all components of our plan are critical to a successful update to this important program.

There is still a long journey ahead toward a modernized federal order system that works better for farmers, but NMPF is ready, with co-op led efforts well under way to ensure that we are well-prepared for the FMMO hearing that begins next month. We’re excited to lead this industry toward solutions that will offer benefits for everyone, and we are gratified that USDA is showing thoughtful leadership through its responsiveness and support for dairy.

NMPF’s Galen on Farm Bill Progress

Posted on by Alan Bjerga

NMPF Senior Vice President Chris Galen discusses the state of play in the upcoming farm bill on Dairy Radio Now.  Current spending debates are slowing progress on the five-year reauthorization of USDA programs, which include nutrition assistance and commodity payments. The current law expires Sept. 30 — because many commodity programs, including dairy, run on a calendar-year basis, any threat of near-term disruption is limited, Galen said.

NMPF’s Detlefsen on the Scourge of Lab-Based Milk Imposters

Posted on by Alan Bjerga

 

NMPF Chief Counsel Clay Detlefsen discusses the even more urgent need for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to enforce beverage standards of identity as lab-based milk imposters try to use dairy terms in the marketplace. “Milk has got 13 essential nutrients. It’s got 400 different fatty acids. It’s got two categories of proteins, casein and whey, numerous micronutrients,” he said. “You cannot replicate that in a laboratory or elsewhere. I mean milk is milk. It’s natural, and it’s good for you. And you can’t duplicate that in the lab.” Detlefsen spoke in an interview with the National Association of Farm Broadcasters.

CWT Assists with 3.1 Million Pounds of Dairy Product Export Sales

Posted on by Khadija Gibson-White

ARLINGTON, VA – Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) member cooperatives accepted 18 offers of export assistance from CWT that helped them capture sales contracts for 2.8 million pounds (1,300 MT) of American-type cheese and 225,000 pounds (102 MT) of cream cheese. The product is going to customers in Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, and will be delivered from July through December 2023.

CWT-assisted member cooperative year-to-date export sales total 27.3 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 765,000 pounds of butter (82% milkfat), 24,000 pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 31.2 million pounds of whole milk powder and 5.4 million pounds of cream cheese. The products are going to 23 countries in five regions. These sales are the equivalent of 540.2 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis.

Assisting CWT members through the Export Assistance program positively affects all U.S. dairy farmers and cooperatives by fostering the competitiveness of U.S. dairy products in the global marketplace and helping member cooperatives gain and maintain world market share for U.S. dairy products. As a result, the program has helped significantly expand the total demand for U.S. dairy products and the demand for U.S. farm milk that produces those products.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT pays export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by required documentation.

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The Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) Export Assistance program is funded by voluntary contributions from dairy cooperatives and individual dairy farmers. The money raised by their investment is being used to strengthen and stabilize the dairy farmers’ milk prices and margins.

Dairy Better Benefits Children through Science-Based Federal Food Policies

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act may have its best chance yet of passing Congress this year. But the potential return of whole and 2% percent options to school lunch menus is only one piece of the evolution of dairy’s role in federal nutrition policies, as two NMPF experts say in a Dairy Defined podcast released today.

“We’re in a pretty exciting spot right now for dairy and nutrition,” said Miquela Hanselman, NMPF’s manager for regulatory affairs. “National Milk is working with other dairy organizations to kind of make sure that we have all of our bases covered.”

Hanselman is NMPF’s point person on the upcoming, twice-a-decade revision to the dietary guidelines used in federal nutrition programs, due in 2025. She’s joined in the podcast by Senior Director for Government Relations Claudia Larson, who is advocating for whole milk legislation in Congress. Evolving science – and attitudes – toward the benefits of whole milk in children’s diets is building momentum for expanded milk options in federal programs.

“The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act expands the varieties of healthy milk options schools can choose to serve in meal programs, and we see this as a commons-sense approach for addressing nutrition insecurity among our nation’s youth,” she said. “Children and adolescents do not meet their daily dairy intake recommendations, and this is a nutrition problem for our kids because dairy plays an unparalleled role in delivering the vital nutrients they need to grow and thrive.”

NMPF has a call to action urging lawmakers to support the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act here. You can find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts. Broadcast outlets may use the MP3 file below. Please attribute information to NMPF.

NMPF Applauds Xochitl Torres Small’s Confirmation as Deputy Agriculture Secretary

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

From NMPF President and CEO Jim Mulhern:

“On behalf of America’s dairy farmers and their cooperatives, we congratulate Xochitl Torres Small on her Senate confirmation as Deputy Secretary of Agriculture. Her rich family heritage in agriculture, as well as her career in public service in Congress and at USDA, will bring valuable perspective to the position, and we know she will bring great insight and energy to her new role. We look forward to continuing our work together to tackle the many pressing issues that affect agriculture and our rural communities.”

Whole Milk Law Can Improve Child Nutrition

Posted on by Alan Bjerga

By Claudia Larson, Senior Director of Government Relations, NMPF

A bipartisan measure to expand the healthy milk varieties schools can choose to serve has a chance to pass Congress.

The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, which would return whole and 2% milk to school lunch menus, has been introduced in the past. But with a growing tide of science to back up its benefits, this year the legislation has advanced farther than ever before, with a possible House floor vote as early as this month. House Agriculture Committee Chair GT Thompson, R-PA, Representative Kim Schrier, D-WA, and Senators Roger Marshall, R-KS, and Peter Welch, D-VA, are leading the effort.

Allowing schools to serve 2% and whole milk is a commonsense solution to a national child nutrition problem. No other food delivers the same rich and unique nutrition package as milk, which provides 13 essential nutrients, including three of the four public health concerns. Milk plays an especially significant role in providing the nutrition critical for childhood health and development. Milk is the number one source of protein for kids 2 to 11, serves as the top source of calcium, potassium, phosphorus, and vitamin D for children ages 2 to 18, and provides seven of the 14 nutrients the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends for optimal brain development.

But the benefits continue throughout a child’s education. Most kids and adolescents do not meet daily dairy intake recommendations, according to the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. That’s a problem. When kids don’t drink milk, they don’t consume the nutrients they need to grow and thrive.

The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act provides an answer. We know that school meals are an important source of milk for kids and adolescents — they provide 77% of total daily dairy milk consumption for low-income children ages 5 to 18. We also know that 2% and whole milk are the most popular milk varieties sold in stores, and we know that kids are more likely to drink milk when we provide choices they prefer. The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act expands the milk options available for schools to serve in the school meal nutrition programs to also include the most popular milk varieties, 2% and whole milk. This legislation would not require schools to serve 2% and whole milk, but it gives them the choice. And many would undoubtedly take it since kids will prefer the same milk they drink at home.

A growing body of science shows that dairy foods at all fat levels have a neutral or positive effect on health outcomes, ranging from heart disease to obesity and diabetes. More specific to children’s health, several recent studies (including systematic reviews and meta-analyses) found that high milkfat consumption was associated with lower childhood obesity, concluding that recommending lower-fat milk versions might not lower the risk of childhood obesity.

The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act is picking up momentum in both congressional chambers. NMPF has been working to build bipartisan support for the measure, including launching an advocacy campaign to connect individuals with their elected officials to voice their opinion. If you’d like your voice to be heard, our call-to-action found at https://www.nmpf.org/take-action/ offers a way to let your representative in Congress know this bill needs to become law.

Given the broad and growing support for the legislation, we are hopeful it will continue to advance, so we can see real progress toward improving children’s nutritional intake by increasing the healthy milk options available to schools.

This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on July 10, 2023.

Need for Lab-Based Beverage Action as Clear as a Milk Label

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

It’s the difference between

“Water, animal-free whey protein (from fermentation), sunflower oil, sugar, less than 1% of: vitamin A, vitamin B12 (cyanocobalamin), vitamin D2, riboflavin, citrus fiber, salt, dipotassium phosphate, acacia, gellan gum, mixed tocopherols (antioxidant), calcium potassium phosphate citrate, natural flavor,” …

and this:

We’ve warned FDA of the problems resulting from this fabrication, and we hope our warning doesn’t fall on deaf ears. After more than four decades of plant-based imposters using dairy terms that violate the agency’s Standard of Identity for milk, lab-based fermenters of single dairy proteins are trying to mislead consumers in the exact same way – by creating a false impression that their slurries of highly processed ingredients are equivalent to dairy.

They’re not. And consumers shouldn’t be led to believe otherwise.

In a letter to FDA asking the agency to take action against the brand Bored Cow, which is marketing its beverage as “animal-free dairy milk” because it uses a single fermented whey protein (real milk has dozens of protein variants and literally hundreds of different fatty acids), the National Milk Producers Federation notes that “it is baseless, preposterous and absurd” to call such a product milk.

“In the interest of public health, the misleading labeling charade must end before it gets out of hand,” NMPF writes. “FDA must act, and must do so now.”

Will it? While FDA’s proposed guidance on the naming of plant-based beverages finally admits a problem, the lab-based conundrum shows how its purported solution – allowing imitators to use the term “milk” if they disclose nutritional differences – falls short. It’s not just about the limited nutrition knowledge we have. It’s about the substance itself, and the complex interaction among naturally-occurring  ingredients that any honest marketer, scientist or regulator knows we don’t fully understand. That humility, and the need to protect against consumer confusion that’s been acknowledged by the last three FDA commissioners, is more than enough reason to take action now.

Because without it, the imposters will proliferate, the headaches will grow, and the marketplace will only become less transparent, in yet another abandonment of FDA’s mission to protect consumers. FDA must enforce its Standard of Identity rules on lab-based dairy labeling now. The need is as basic as the ingredient listing on a bottle of milk. FDA can’t let that clear principle be dragged through the mud – or whatever substances these fake “milks” are made of.

IDF World Dairy Summit Comes at a Great Time

Posted on by Alan Bjerga

 

The International Dairy Federation’s World Dairy Summit will be in the United States this year. Shawna Morris, senior vice president of trade policy for the National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council, says the summit is coming to the U.S. at a good time. “We had a record year in exports last year, we’re very well-poised to continue to grow in the years to come, and we’re leading on so many of the sustainability fronts that are such an increasing focus for international markets,” she said.

June CWT-Assisted Dairy Export Sales Total 12.6 Million Pounds

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

CWT member cooperatives secured 51 contracts in March, adding 4.7 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 220,000 pounds of butter, 6.6 million pounds of whole milk powder, 22,000 pounds of anhydrous milkfat and 1.1 million pounds of cream cheese to CWT-assisted sales in 2023. In milk equivalent, this is equal to 105.7 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis. These products will go to customers in Asia, Oceania, South America, Central America, the Caribbean and Middle East-North Africa, and will be shipped from June through December 2023.

CWT-assisted 2023 dairy product sales contracts year-to-date total 61.7 million pounds of American-type cheese, 815,000 pounds of butter, 24,000 pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 5.2 million pounds of cream cheese and 31.2 million pounds of whole milk powder. This brings the total milk equivalent for the year to 513.4 million pounds on a milkfat basis.

Exporting dairy products is critical to the viability of dairy farmers and their cooperatives across the country. Whether or not a cooperative is actively engaged in exporting cheese, butter, anhydrous milkfat, cream cheese, or whole milk powder, moving products into world markets is essential. CWT provides a means to move domestic dairy products to overseas markets by helping to overcome U.S. dairy’s trade disadvantages.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT will pay export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by the submission of the required documentation.