Author: Rachel Ravencraft
Protein demand pulling up milk checks
By Will Loux, Senior Vice President, Global Economic Affairs
From its primacy in the latest dietary guidelines to front page headlines, protein is seemingly everywhere, and dairy is particularly well poised to supply the growing demand as the critical nutrient takes center stage in American diets. The good news for dairy producers is that the growing demand for dairy protein is starting to be reflected in their milk checks.
As nonfat dry milk (NFDM) prices hit record highs and dry whey prices sit comfortably above 60 cents, the positive sales momentum driven by today’s protein boom is directly translating into higher prices for dairy producers. In fact, the implied Class IV price based on CME spot values has improved by more than $10 per hundredweight (cwt.) since the start of the year, with most of the rally being driven by NFDM prices gaining by more than $1 per pound.
However, it isn’t specifically booming NFDM and dry whey demand that’s causing prices to rise. Rather, despite surging U.S. milk production, it is a lack of supply of those products that explains the improved prices. Simply put: Milk — and specifically protein — that otherwise would have gone toward sweet whey and nonfat dry milk is now being made into protein concentrates/isolates, ultrafiltered milk, and high-protein yogurts.
Taking a closer look at the numbers, in 2025, U.S. NFDM production was at its lowest ebb since 2013, while skim milk powder (SMP) fell to its lowest level since 2012. Even more startling, U.S. dry whey production was at its lowest for this century. Given U.S. skim solids production grew by 3.6% over the last 12 months, where is all that protein going?
The chart above shows the year-over-year change of U.S. protein utilization by-product category on an annualized basis. Historically, cheese and whey were the primary users of dairy proteins (dark and light blue, respectively). The whey solids coming off the cheese vat are increasingly being directed toward whey protein concentrate 80 (WPC80) and whey protein isolate (WPI), where production is up a combined 10% on a protein-equivalent basis. Beyond cheese though, when milk outpaced cheese’s needs — due to either abundant supply or demand slowdowns such as the COVID-19 pandemic — milk historically went into balancing plants for manufacturing dried skim ingredients, like NFDM.
Today, however, the fastest-growing user of dairy protein is the “everything else” category in yellow, which is surging as U.S. yogurt and cottage cheese production grew by 388 and 31 million pounds, respectively, in 2025, demonstrating gains of 8% apiece. Production of protein-rich dairy beverages isn’t tracked by USDA, but all signs point to booming demand there as well.
In fact, the growth in production of these high-protein products absorbed the equivalent of 690 million pounds of SMP, or 32% of production. For producers, if that dairy protein had gone into the dryer, like it had in previous expansion cycles, it is difficult to imagine U.S. nonfat dry milk holding at $1.20 per pound, like it did for much of 2025, let alone rallying to today’s record highs.
Looking ahead, as favorable as protein demand is, $2.20 per pound for NFDM is likely unsustainable without international prices coming up to meet the United States. U.S. NFDM prices are 67 cents above SMP on the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) and 75 cents above European SMP. While 70% of U.S. NFDM and SMP production went toward either the domestic market or Mexico in 2025 (where the U.S. has a distinct freight and tariff advantage), and 665 million pounds went to highly contested markets, like Southeast Asia. If U.S. sales to these markets begin to ease, prices are likely to follow. Yet even if today’s altitude is unlikely to be maintained indefinitely, NFDM prices should be firmer than the last several years thanks to the strength and pull of protein in yogurts, cottage cheese, and beverages.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on April 27, 2026.
Dairy Leads Through Stewardship, FARM’s Ayache Says
Stewardship is a deeply engrained value among dairy farmers that’s also good for economic success, NMPF’s Nicole Ayache says in the latest Dairy Defined Podcast.
Ayache, who leads the National Dairy FARM (Farmers Assuring Responsible Management) Programs’ Environmental Stewardship initiative, notes how sound management of resources and a focus on efficiency has boosted dairy productivity and bottom lines, even as it reflects the dedication of the farmers themselves to serving consumers.
“A lot of stewardship is about efficiency” – but it’s also more than that, Ayache said. “Anyone who chats with farmers know that because you can hear every time you talk to them about their farm and their choices, you can hear their passion for the animals and the land and their care and the nutrition they provide to our country and the world.”
NMPF Statement on the DAIRY PRIDE Act
From NMPF President & CEO Gregg Doud:
“FDA’s continued failure to enforce its own rules on the proper labeling of plant-based alternative products is a public health problem, plain and simple. Milk and dairy products supply 13 essential nutrients, including three that continue to be identified as nutrients of public health concern: calcium, potassium, and vitamin D. But plant-based imitation products that are not nutritionally equivalent to real milk and do not deliver dairy’s unique nutrient package for too long have been allowed to imply to consumers that they are just like the real thing, creating a public health problem that FDA commissioners have acknowledged over the past decade.
“The DAIRY PRIDE Act directs FDA to enforce dairy standards of identity, which were developed to promote honesty and protect consumers. Through the standards of identity, dairy terms, including “milk”, “cheese” and “yogurt,” have come to carry distinct meaning in the minds of consumers, with built-in expectations for nutritional values. By not enforcing these standards, FDA has allowed plant-based imitators to prey on consumers’ expectations while delivering nutritionally inferior products.
“It’s high time FDA makes it easier for consumers to navigate the choices they face in the grocery aisles; the DAIRY PRIDE Act is an important step in the right direction. Dairy farmers and their cooperatives thank Reps. John Joyce and Josh Riley for their bipartisan leadership in finding solutions through this critical legislation.”
Note: Last night, Reps. John Joyce, R-PA, and Josh Riley, D-NY, reintroduced the bipartisan DAIRY PRIDE Act in the House of Representatives. The legislation would deem food products that are making inaccurate claims about milk content “misbranded” and require FDA to issue guidance for nationwide enforcement of mislabeled imitation dairy products within 90 days.
NMPF tracking state-level dairy issues
By Sage Saffran, Senior Manager, Special Projects & Strategic Initiatives
State legislatures play a critical role in shaping the national policy landscape. Two recent examples — Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) laws and raw milk legislation — demonstrate how state-level actions are driving broader conversations while creating immediate challenges for dairy farmers and their cooperatives, a phenomenon the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) is tracking more closely as a service to its members.
EPR laws shift responsibility for managing packaging waste from consumers and municipalities to producers. States including California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington are implementing frameworks, all of which require manufacturers to fund and support systems for collecting, recycling, and disposing of packaging materials.
The implications for dairy producers are significant. Dairy products depend heavily on packaging to ensure food safety, extend shelf life, and maintain product quality. Alternative materials may help reduce compliance costs, but options remain limited due to food safety and freshness requirements, as well as the demands of large-scale production.
A growing patchwork of state regulations is further complicating the challenge. Companies operating across multiple states must navigate differing requirements, making the same product subject to different rules depending on where it is sold. This inconsistency increases both costs and operational complexity. NMPF is evaluating how to best address this regulatory patchwork, which comes as some lawsuits question states’ authority to impose these fees.
Raw milk legislation is also gathering state-level momentum, fueled by segments of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement. Iowa, Oklahoma, and Michigan lawmakers are considering bills that would loosen restrictions on the sale of unpasteurized milk.
Health experts continue to warn about the risks associated with raw milk consumption, noting that unpasteurized milk can harbor dangerous pathogens such as E. coli, salmonella, and Listeria, which pose serious health threats. These risks are especially higher for children, pregnant women, and individuals with weakened immune systems. Pasteurization, a science-based process used for more than 100 years, remains a critical safeguard that eliminates harmful bacteria while preserving milk’s nutritional benefits. NMPF is actively advocating at both the state and national levels against the sale of raw milk for direct consumption due to the heightened risk of foodborne illness.
NMPF has stepped up monitoring of these and other emerging state-level issues. Recognizing that state policies often lay the groundwork for national action, NMPF is strengthening its coordination with member cooperatives and state dairy policy associations to better understand evolving regulations and support a more unified industry response.
This effort includes enhanced communication and collaboration across states. One key forum is our annual state dairy association summit, scheduled for July 14 and 15 in Arlington, Va. The meeting brings together industry stakeholders to discuss developments such as EPR implementation and raw milk legislation and explore how NMPF can best support state-level engagement.
As these issues continue to evolve, they highlight the growing influence of state policymaking on national debates. For the dairy sector, proactive engagement at the state level will remain essential to navigating change and shaping future policy outcomes.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on April 16, 2026.
Gateway to opportunity
By Nicole Ayache, Chief Sustainability Officer
The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management Environmental Stewardship (FARM ES) Program is designed for dairy farmers across the country to showcase U.S. dairy’s environmental leadership through a single streamlined platform. The program, which is developed with farmers through the program’s governance, saves farmers time and effort by alleviating repetitive requests from downstream buyers.
The program is dairy’s armor against the finger pointing that still gets aimed at animal ag — organizations that want to undermine dairy’s reputation as natural resource stewards. Dairy farmers are the original environmental stewards; our continued challenge is to demonstrate that fact to customers and consumers. Dairy’s nutrition story is well known — years of nutrition research shows consumers that dairy is a nutritional powerhouse, providing 13 essential nutrients in every serving. FARM ES, along with research efforts through Dairy Management Inc. (DMI) and others, help the industry tell a similar story for conservation efforts.
FARM ES provides the aggregated data for dairy cooperatives and processors to respond to supply chain requests while protecting individual farmer privacy. The FARM Program’s terms of service are clear: Farmers own their data. Cooperatives and processors that administer the program can aggregate farmer data, but no one can share individual farmer data without their permission, including the FARM Program.
According to a panel at the Dairy Sustainability Alliance fall meeting, more than 75% of cooperatives’ supply chain (or Scope 3) emissions were captured through aggregated FARM ES data. One platform helped streamline that sometimes onerous reporting effort. But the program isn’t just about protecting dairy’s license to operate.
Another feature of FARM ES is its role as a gateway to opportunities for dairy farmers. The program measures the impact of implementing beneficial practices and technologies — measurement that is critical to a variety of incentive projects. For example, the Dairy Feed in Focus program offers technical guidance and financial incentives for adoption of conservation best management practices. FARM ES is a measurement tool within the project to estimate greenhouse gas emissions of practice implementation.
Some organizations offer premiums for lower carbon footprint scores. In these situations, farmers are being rewarded for what they’re already doing: pursuing efficiency gains and productivity improvements. That gets directly reflected in FARM ES, a program that emphasizes that conservation needs to be a win-win for the business.
To motivate participation, some cooperatives and processors offer incentives. This can be a good on-ramp for farms to begin the process of setting a baseline. Prairie Farms Dairy, for example, offers a per-hundredweight (cwt.) incentive for the 12-month period when a farm participates in the program.
There are also new opportunities on the horizon. NMPF has worked with Athian and California Dairies Inc. on a pathway for farms to generate revenue using their FARM ES scores. The work will enable farms to generate carbon credits from their carbon footprint reductions measured through FARM ES.
Knowing where a farm’s environmental footprint stands today, thanks to FARM ES, is a critical first step to accessing additional financial and technical assistance opportunities.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on April 9, 2026.
Cottage Cheese and a Boom Built to Last
If you’re looking for an indication that dairy’s recent gains in the consumer marketplace are meant to last, cottage cheese would be a good place to start.
Flashback to… 2023, a time not so long ago. “Barbiecore” ruled a pink-hued fashion scene. “Quiet luxury” was in. A new drug called Ozempic seemed to hold promise. Pundits were gearing up for the Trump-Biden presidential rematch… and America fell in love again with cottage cheese.
Inspired by TikTok trends and embraced by Generation Z, cottage cheese was a meme for the cultural moment, spurring increased sales after decades of decline. But was that all it was destined to be? When the influencers moved on, would cottage cheese inevitably fade back into the dowdy, food-for-your-grandparents doldrums to which it had seemingly been consigned in the past?
Nope.
With two more years of data in, cottage cheese clearly isn’t a food fad that was tried and discarded. Sales that had bottomed out in 2022 at 534.6 million pints rose by 9.4 percent the next year — certainly a buzzworthy jump. But in 2024, volume rose another 12.5 percent. And in 2025, cottage cheese sales volumes jumped another 14.3 percent, to 746.6 million.
That, friends of dairy, is what is called a lasting trend. And an accelerating one, at that. So how high could it go?
USDA per-capita consumption numbers tell a similar story. That data, which ends in 2024 but goes back to 1975, adds another layer of intrigue. As in the retail sales data, per-capita consumption bottoms out in 2022, at 1.91 pounds per American, per year. The next two years increase, with 2024 at 2.37 pounds. That’s what someone would expect, given the retail numbers.
But here’s the interesting part. Dairy consumption overall is its highest since the 1950s. Butter’s at its highest since the 1960s. Cottage cheese is at its highest since… 2009. 2009? The year that Kanye West interrupted Taylor Swift at the VMAs? The year vampires ruled entertainment? The year Barack Obama became the first black president? That’s not so long ago. And thus not as impressive, you might think.
That’s exactly the point. This trend has room to grow. In 1976, as America celebrated its Bicentennial (and “Disco Lady” topped the pop charts — OK, now we’re getting old), per-capita cottage cheese consumption was 4.63 pounds, nearly twice what it was in 2024.
That’s a lot of room to roam. And America’s turning 250 this year.
So when people look back nostalgically at 2026 (because someone will, someday, somehow), perhaps they won’t think of it as an era of cottage cheese — because they’ll be eating a lot more of it than we did at the time. But we will be the ones who were there for the revival, when a nutritious, nutrient-dense snack was just beginning its comeback.
All the signs are there. Dairy just has to maintain the momentum. And the message. (A helpful hint: Please post this column on social media, where the comeback purportedly began.)
U.S. Dairy Statement on USTR National Trade Estimate Report
The National Milk Producers Federation, U.S. Dairy Export Council and the Consortium for Common Food Names commended USTR for spotlighting persistent trade barriers facing U.S. dairy exporters in the 2026 National Trade Estimate report:
“Nearly one in every six pounds of milk produced in America is shipped to a customer overseas,” Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF, said. “When foreign markets are closed off by bogus restrictions, the pain is felt directly on farms across this country. The administration’s work through reciprocal trade negotiations to knock down these barriers is exactly the kind of advocacy American dairy farmers need, and we are grateful to see it reflected in this report.”
“The inclusion of dairy trade barriers in this report and the administration’s concrete action to address them through reciprocal trade negotiations sends a clear signal that the United States is serious about opening markets for American dairy exporters,” Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC, said. “Every unnecessary certification requirement dismantled, every unjustified facility registration eliminated, and every market access commitment secured through these agreements is a win for U.S. dairy. We thank the administration for confronting the barriers directly and we look forward to building on that progress.”
“The EU’s common name confiscation campaign is one of the most cynical trade tactics in the world today, and we are grateful that this administration has made confronting it a priority,” Jaime Castaneda, executive director of CCFN, said. “By documenting the EU’s geographical indications agenda prominently in the NTE Report and pushing back against it in reciprocal trade negotiations, USTR is standing up for American producers of cheeses, wines, meats, and beers. We strongly encourage the administration to keep up the great work.”
FARM Program Breaks Down Biosecurity Planning
The National Dairy FARM Program equipped farmers with the knowledge and resources to prepare for potential outbreaks during its session, “Where to Start: Building an Enhanced Biosecurity Plan” presented March 18 at the Central Plains Dairy Expo in Sioux Falls, SD.
FARM Biosecurity lead Miquela Hanselman, in partnership with Preventalytics owner Dr. Danelle Bickett-Weddle, instructed producers on how to identify risks specific to their herd.
FARM Biosecurity can help producers take the first steps towards developing an enhanced biosecurity plan:
- Step one: Address movement risks, such as animals, supply deliveries and personnel.
- Step two: Complete a self-assessment that includes questions regarding animal health and disease monitoring, animal movements and contacts, vehicles and equipment, personnel and establishing a line of separation. This delineates a point of entry on farms and can help control on-farm movements. Each of these areas corresponds to the enhanced biosecurity plan.
- Step three: Create a daily biosecurity plan specific to your operation and gather essential information such as Premises IDs and emergency contacts for the farm.
FARM also connected with the broader dairy community throughout the week, sharing free resources and talking to consumers about the great work that happens on dairy farms daily.
The FARM Program remains at the forefront of on-farm social responsibility initiatives, advancing U.S. dairy’s mission of continuous improvement through industry outreach and education.
March-to-Date NEXT-Assisted Export Sales Surpass 30 Million Pounds
NEXT member cooperatives secured 77 contracts in March with one week still outstanding for the month due to publication timing. These contracts added 30.4 million pounds of product in NEXT-assisted sales in 2026. These products will go to customers in Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, Middle East-North Africa, Eurasia, South America, Central America and the Caribbean and will be shipped from March through October.
Exporting dairy products is critical to the viability of dairy farmers and their cooperatives across the country. Whether or not a cooperative is actively engaged in exporting, moving products into world markets is essential. NEXT provides a means to move domestic dairy products to overseas markets by helping to overcome U.S. dairy’s trade disadvantages.
The referenced amounts of dairy products reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. NEXT will pay export assistance to bidders only when export and delivery of product is verified by submission of required documentation.
Getting Word Out Helps Boost DMC Numbers
After signup rates were lagging previous years for the Dairy Margin Coverage Program, a full-court communications press from NMPF helped push enrollment levels above year-ago levels, with an even higher percentage of dairy farmers participating as a proportion of U.S. dairy operations.
Participation in USDA’s Dairy Margin Coverage program rose to 13,349 this year, up from 12,989 in 2025. Currently, 57 percent of dairy farms are enrolled, compared to 53 percent the previous year.
The gain came after a comprehensive NMPF effort to get the word out, which included staff appearances on RFD-TV, distributed news articles via the National Association of Farm Broadcasters, social media, NMPF’s CEO’s Corner column and President’s Report from Gregg Doud, member alerts and news releases.
This growth highlights that farmers continue to recognize the importance of this safety net and benefit from its support. Congress improved DMC as part of farm-support provisions in last year’s budget reconciliation bill, with an updated production history and an increase in the amount of milk covered under the program.
As that effort was under way, the February margin under USDA’s Margin Coverage Program was generating another month of payments, with a reported margin for the month of $8.46/cwt, up $0.65/cwt from the month before. Farmers who elected coverage at the maximum $9.50/cwt level received a payment of $1.04/cwt for the month.
An $0.80/cwt increase in the all-milk price from January drove the higher margin, which was tempered by $0.15/cwt gain in the February DMC feed cost formula, due primarily to a higher soybean meal price.
The DMC Decision Tool on the USDA website projected at the end of March that February’s payment might be the year’s last, other than a possible small one for March. USDA expected margins to average $10.61/cwt for the year.
NMPF Opens Doors for Dairy in Ecuador Trade Deal
NMPF’s sustained engagement with the U.S. government continues to pay off for American dairy farmers, with a new U.S.-Ecuador reciprocal trade agreement, signed March 13, representing the latest in a string of hard-fought market access wins.
The new deal would improve export opportunities for U.S. dairy products in a market long plagued by restrictive tariffs and nontariff trade barriers and would deliver on several dairy priorities. It would:
- Eliminate tariffs on a range of U.S. dairy products;
- Overhaul Ecuador’s burdensome import licensing system; and
- Recognize U.S. regulatory oversight, including dropping facility listing requirements and accepting certificates from American regulatory authorities.
For cheese producers specifically, the deal protects 40 common cheese names including “parmesan,” blocking foreign competitors from monopolizing terms that U.S. producers depend on.
“With an unprecedented investment in U.S. dairy manufacturing capacity, deals like this are vital to making it easier for international buyers to source the great products our dairy companies are making,” NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud said.
The Ecuador deal is the tenth agreement secured by the Administration that includes new market access for U.S. dairy products. NMPF and USDEC remain committed to working with USTR to support implementation and build on this momentum.
