May Sets Third Consecutive Monthly Milk-Price Record

The USDA-reported national average all-milk price for May was $27.30/cwt, topping the April price by $0.20/cwt for a new monthly record, the third consecutive month of all-time-high prices.

The May DMC feed cost eased back by two cents from April’s record to $14.79/cwt, boosting the May DMC margin by $0.22/cwt to $12.51/cwt, the highest monthly margin since the DMC program began in January 2019.

The milk price outlook for the remainder of 2022 has been weakening slightly in recent weeks, as high dairy product wholesale prices have caused a spike in retail dairy price inflation, generating concerns about whether consumers may respond by buying fewer dairy products. All current projections of the DMC margin continue to anticipate that it will remain above the $9.50/cwt maximum coverage level under the program for the remainder of 2022.

Trade Success Shows How Patience, Persistence Pays

An invitation to the White House to represent dairy farmers and their cooperatives at the signing of important legislation that helps the dairy community is an honor. The chance to attend, along with U.S. Dairy Export Council CEO Krysta Harden and other ag leaders, the signing of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act last month was an opportunity to highlight dairy’s hard work to alleviate the shipping crisis that has impeded exports for the past year.

But to be honest, a greater honor comes from working with the NMPF and USDEC team that over the past year has led efforts in dairy and across agriculture to enact the legislation. And that effort’s success is only one more accomplishment in one of the biggest long-term successes of dairy and dairy policy over the past generation – the emergence of the United States as a critical player in international markets. This huge export growth boosts milk prices, alleviates pressure on an industry whose productivity outpaces domestic population growth, and feeds the world with the nutritious products Americans have long enjoyed.

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act sets in motion a series of new rules and regulations governing ocean freight shippers that the Federal Maritime Commission must implement over the next year. These rules should help dairy-product exporters get more of their goods onto ships that recently have been heading to Asia empty, trying to meet import demands rather than fill their hulls with the goods that create U.S. jobs.

Agriculture, a rare American industry that ships out more than it brings in, has suffered from practices that have created unnecessary, costly delays to serving overseas consumers. While this legislation alone won’t smooth out all the issues with supply chains that are struggling with even deeper structural issues, it will help dairy build upon the global competitiveness that made 2021 a record year for U.S. dairy exports.

That’s gratifying. It’s also in keeping with the longer-term story of how patient, relentless efforts in dairy-trade policy have helped build an emerging export powerhouse.

Day-to-day, few areas of the many in which NMPF serves the interests of its members can be as bedeviling as trade. U.S. dairy farmers gain a key win against Canada – and Canada responds by dragging its feet even further. A judge stands up for the integrity of common cheese names – and the European Union persists in its shenanigans. These are the sorts of setbacks and stonewalls that can obscure progress.

But the progress is real. In 1995, 4.4 percent of U.S. milk solids were exported to foreign destinations. Last year, it was 17.3 percent – nearly one out of every six gallons of milk. U.S. dairy trade set records in volume and value in 2021, international market share is increasing, and American milk producers stand to benefit more than farmers anywhere else from the world’s growing appetite for dairy as competitors craft policies that hinder their own dairy industries – a path we simply won’t let happen here.

That growth has been crucial as gains in U.S. dairy production have outstripped domestic population growth. It’s safe to say that, without the emergence of international markets, milk prices would be dramatically lower, and much of the current size and regional diversity of U.S. dairy farms would be lost due to intolerable economic conditions.

U.S. dairy exports have risen broadly in part because we sweat the details – the attentiveness NMPF and USDEC showed in pushing for the Ocean Shipping Reform Act is characteristic of its approach for years. Decades of diligent work on trade has built a brighter present for dairy, even though that work requires patience and persistence that at times would seem to go beyond reason.

The progress we’ve seen on trade has happened because of the painstaking work of beneficial free-trade agreements; of tariff reductions that improved access; of robust legal efforts that have successfully defended U.S. dairy in international law; and because of the re-orientation of the industry toward greater exports that were made possible because trade policy created a more hospitable environment in which to invest.

Foresight by earlier NMPF and dairy check-off program leaders – and a lot of hard work — built the U.S. Dairy Export Council, acting worldwide to promote U.S. products. The same can be said for the industry’s sustainability initiatives, which help U.S. dairy farmers be the most sustainable, and thus most competitive, milk producers in the world.

And just as past efforts have paid huge dividends, present and future ones will as well, from seeking continued opportunities through initiatives like the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to telling the world the compelling story of U.S. dairy through hosting the International Dairy Federation’s annual summit in Chicago in 2023. It’s the first visit of that global conference to the United States in three decades, and it’s being brought here through the efforts of Dairy Management Inc., USDEC and NMPF, after the previous host – China – backed out.

Dairy’s representation at the White House at the signing of policy that will advance this industry shows how much we matter in policy arenas. But it’s also only one part of a much larger, much more important effort. Through resilience, progress and determination to build a better future for U.S. dairy, we’ve come a long way. And whatever the specific successes – or momentary frustrations – may be, dairy’s advance will continue.

Task Force Recommends Next Steps in FMMO Modernization Work

The task force of milk marketing experts from across NMPF’s membership met May 12 to review and approve a series of recommendations about how to improve the Federal Milk Marketing Order program.

The meeting at NMPF’s office was the next step in refining proposals to modernize and improve the price determination under the FMMO system. The Task Force reached unanimous agreement on a number of recommendations for improving our current pricing system and is expected to make several more recommendations before its work concludes.

The full NMPF Economic Policy Committee will review the Task Force’s proposals at their next meeting on June 6th, followed by a Board of Directors review of the proposals at their meeting June 7-8. NMPF will conduct additional member and industry stakeholder outreach over the summer.

U.S. Monthly Average Milk Price Sets Record High in March

The highest-ever monthly U.S. average all-milk price was reported by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) for March, at $25.90/cwt. This was twenty cents per cwt higher than the previous record, in September 2014, the only year – until now – in which the monthly all-milk price topped $25.00/cwt.

The futures-based outlook for the milk price for all of calendar year 2022 halted its steady ascent since last summer during the fourth week of March, but it hasn’t dropped below $26.00/cwt since then, indicating there may be more monthly records ahead for this key measure of U.S. dairy farmers’ gross incomes from milk sales.

USDA has reported the March margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage program to be $11.55/cwt. Since March 2021, the DMC feed cost has increased by $3.22/cwt, while the all-milk price has risen by $8.50/cwt over the same period. The DMC Decision Tool on the USDA Farm Service Agency DMC website predicts that DMC margin will remain above the $9.50/cwt maximum coverage level under the program for the remainder of 2022.