Author: Theresa Sweeney

December DMC Margin Reverses Trend, Drops to $8.44/cwt

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

The December margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program bucked the trend that began in August of improving milk prices and margins, sliding $1.14/cwt to $8.44/cwt and matching the margin last seen in September. The renewed weakness was due almost entirely to a $1.10/cwt fall in the December all-milk price from November. The December DMC feed cost rose by 4 cents a hundredweight to $12.16/cwt of milk, with higher corn and premium alfalfa hay prices almost offset by a lower soybean meal price.

The average margin for all months of 2023 was $6.70/cwt, effectively tying last year with 2021 for the lowest average calendar-year margin under both the DMC and its predecessor, the Margin Protection Program (MPP). End-of-January futures-based forecasts indicated DMC margins averaging between $10.20/cwt and $11.00/cwt in 2024.

FMMO Hearing Ends with NMPF Unity Strong as Ever

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

USDA’s longest-ever federal order hearing ended Jan. 30 with NMPF’s comprehensive approach to modernizing milk pricing at the center of industry discussion. With the FMMO update process now moving to its next phase, NMPF leadership remains critical as USDA moves to formulating its own proposal to put before producers.

“NMPF spent more than two years preparing for USDA’s Federal Order hearing, and that preparation paid off,” said NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud in a statement after the end of testimony and rebuttals. “Our proposals, unanimously supported by our Board of Directors, reflect farmer unity and a good-faith effort to build industry consensus.

“After five months, 12,000 pages of testimony, and almost two dozen separate proposals considered, our plan remains the most comprehensive, coherent, and compelling framework for modernizing a system that’s badly in need of improvement. We look forward to working with USDA and the entire industry in the weeks and months to come, noting that any plan USDA designs will by necessity require complex analysis to result in a proposal that serves diverse farmer needs well.”

Organized discussions of the federal milk-pricing system, which showed strains under the weight of the COVID-19 pandemic and continues to struggle in the face of a changing industry, began with NMPF in 2021. The five-month USDA hearing in Carmel, IN, revolved around NMPF’s suite of proposals for change unanimously adopted by its Board of Directors last year.

The hearing has addressed critical issues for dairy farmers, including the “make allowance” re-imbursing processor costs, component pricing for milk, and the Class I price surface that considers travel expenses. Recent discussions have revolved around the so-called Class I mover, a change to which in 2019 has cost farmers roughly $1.2 billion. Doud called for change to the mover in his statement and in NMPF’s monthly CEO’s Corner column published today.

“We’ll continue to advocate for badly needed changes in areas such as the Class I mover,” he said. “It needs to change back to the previous “higher-of’ formula that served farmers best. The higher-of responds quickly to the marketplace, it helps farmer cash flow, it’s simple to understand, and it would have no real impact on processors who are using the formula to boost their immediate balance sheets, not manage future risk as they claim.”

NMPF and member cooperative staff are currently formulating NMPF’s elaboration and defense of its positions in the hearing to USDA, the first step toward USDA’s own proposal. That’s due in less than two months – and only underscores how much work is left to do in creating a fairer pricing system for farmers, Doud said.

“This final year is the most critical,” he said. “We are excited to continue our leadership, and will, as always, fight for the best approaches to ensure that dairy farms prosper.”

FMMO Modernization Needs to Move – And So Does the Class I Mover

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

The long, patience-testing — and absolutely necessary – Federal Milk Marketing Order hearing is nearly over.

The longest-ever USDA federal order hearing ended last Tuesday, after roughly 12,000 pages of testimony and nearly two dozen separate proposals considered. Through it all, NMPF’s impressive unity never faltered – our plan remains the most comprehensive, coherent, and compelling plan for modernization of a system that’s showing its creaks after a generation.

Now, the next phase of the arduous process of amending federal orders begins, as USDA begins considering the hearing record and hearing participants have 60 days to elaborate and defend their positions. USDA, of course, will have the final say in crafting its own proposal, but we’re confident our plan will remain the basis of progress, and we look forward to adding information and reinforcing our own arguments in the weeks to come. It’s critical to keep in mind that any plan designed to have national support needs to address diverse interests. That’s why our comprehensive plan covers areas ranging from the Class I price surface and make allowances to component pricing formulas and forward contracting.

One area that’s so important that we’re seeking resolution in the quickest manner possible is the Class I mover, which sorely needs to go back to the “higher-of” formula that served farmers well before the current “average of” approach took effect in 2019.

Processor interests aggressively pushed for the change to the mover in the 2018 Farm Bill. At the time, the adjustment seemed reasonable for farmers too, based on data going back to 2000. However, the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current prolonged spread between the Class III and Class IV prices, have shown how poorly the current mover works for farmers in today’s agricultural environment. Milk producer losses are growing, with the amount of money taken from their milk checks soon to surpass $1.2 billion by April – all because of a system that now limits risks for processors while putting potentially unlimited losses on farmer backs.

This is unacceptable, a reality the hearing only made more obvious. While processors continually talked about how important the current mover is for their risk management strategies, no one in months of testimony ever presented definitive proof that such risk management is occurring at any meaningful level. Meanwhile, the processors continue to rake in dollars that would have gone to farmers – and will keep raking it in, by the way, until the mover is changed, a potentially huge financial incentive to work against positive changes for dairy farmers.

Knowing that the current mover isn’t defensible, these groups have suggested a modification to the current approach that’s largely based on a proposal that NMPF developed in 2021 under dire straits, but processors rejected. Their plan would adjust the mover in a backward-looking fashion that would allow farmers to recoup losses years after the fact. That reduces losses over the long term, but it’s cold comfort to farmers whose operations are struggling to live month-to-month and don’t have two years to be made right again. Moreover, it’s now clear that the losses farmers suffered in 2020 were not a one-off fluke.

And thus, given the current difficult times on dairy farms, we’re now pushing hard for the return to the higher-of. It responds quickly to the marketplace, it helps farmer cash flow, it’s simple to understand, and it would have no real impact on processors who are using the formula to boost their immediate balance sheets, not manage future risk as they claim.

Dating to NMPF’s first internal discussion, our path toward FMMO modernization is now nearly three years old. This final year, which, should all required timelines be met, would result in a producer vote roughly one year from now, is the most critical. It’s when, after all the research and talking, USDA will propose a new approach – and farmers will decide. These decisions are likely to shape the future of dairy for the next generation. We are excited to continue our leadership in this critical area, and will, as always, fight for the best approaches to ensure that dairy farms prosper.

Gregg Doud

President & CEO, NMPF

 

NMPF Statement at FMMO Hearing Conclusion

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

From Gregg Doud, President and CEO, National Milk Producers Federation:

“NMPF spent more than two years preparing for USDA’s Federal Order hearing, and that preparation paid off. Our proposals, unanimously supported by our Board of Directors, reflect farmer unity and a good-faith effort to build industry consensus. After five months, 12,000 pages of testimony, and almost two dozen separate proposals considered, our plan remains the most comprehensive, coherent, and compelling framework for modernizing a system that’s badly in need of improvement.  We look forward to working with USDA and the entire industry in the weeks and months to come, noting that any plan USDA designs will by necessity require complex analysis to result in a proposal that serves diverse farmer needs well.

“In the meantime, we’ll continue to advocate for badly needed changes in areas such as the Class I mover. The current formula has cost farmers $1.2 billion in losses since its implementation after the 2018 farm bill, with additional losses expected in the coming months. It needs to change back to the previous “higher-of’ formula that served farmers best. The higher-of responds quickly to the marketplace, it helps farmer cash flow, it’s simple to understand, and it would have no real impact on processors who are using the formula to boost their immediate balance sheets, not manage future risk as they claim.

“Dating to NMPF’s first internal discussions, our path toward FMMO modernization is now nearly three years old. This final year is the most critical. We are excited to continue our leadership in this critical area, and will, as always, fight for the best approaches to ensure that dairy farms prosper.”

FACTS ABOUT NMPF’s FMMO PROPOSAL:

 

NMPF supports the federal legislation that authorizes the FMMO system, as well as improvements that increase clarity and producer understanding of milk pricing and ensure an orderly market and fair prices for dairy farmers.

NMPF’s proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order System include:

  • Returning to the “higher of” Class I mover;
  • Discontinuing the use of barrel cheese in the protein component price formula;
  • Extending the current 30-day reporting limit to 45 days on forward priced sales on nonfat dry milk and dry whey to capture more exports sales in the USDA product price reporting;
  • Updating milk component factors for protein, other solids and nonfat solids in the Class III and Class IV skim milk price formulas;
  • Developing a process to ensure make-allowances are reviewed more frequently through legislation directing USDA to conduct mandatory plant-cost studies every two years;
  • Updating dairy product manufacturing allowances contained in the USDA milk price formulas; and
  • Updating the Class I differential price system to reflect changes in the cost of delivering bulk milk to fluid processing plants.

For more information, visit here.

Whole Milk Ready for Breakthrough Year

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

With consumer choice, scientific research and congressional legislation all going its way, 2024 promises to be a breakthrough year for whole milk, NMPF’s Head of Nutrition Policy Claudia Larson and Regulatory Affairs Director Miquela Hanselman said in a Dairy Defined Podcast released today.

The variety that shoppers prefer is poised to return to school lunch menus given the bipartisan approval of the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in the House of Representatives, and it will figure prominently in consideration for updated federal Dietary Guidelines that are due next year.

“This is important to our students, this is important to our schools, this is important to our parents,” said Larson, a senior director of government relations at NMPF. “Reach out to your senators, let them know that this is important to you and your children in your community and ask them to please co-sponsor the bill.”

NMPF has a call to action urging lawmakers to support the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act here. The full podcast is here. You can also find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts. Broadcast outlets may use the MP3 file below. Please attribute information to NMPF.

Milk’s Lead Rises as Plant-Based Beverages Sink

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

The final numbers are in, and they confirm what we’ve anticipated all year. In 2023, consumers emphatically turned away from plant-based beverages at an accelerating rate that caused the category to lose market share to milk, where whole milk and lactose-free varieties are thriving and surpassing their competitors.

The numbers give even more reason to put a stake in all that overprocessed hype – and to push even harder for integrity in labeling beverages that are being abandoned by consumers tired of inferior alternatives to dairy.

With full year data now available from Circana Inc., which tracks grocery-store spending, plant-based beverage consumption in 2023 fell 6.6 percent to 337.7 million gallons. It’s the second straight year of declines and the lowest consumption since 2019.

Sales volumes for almond drinks, the biggest plant-based category, fell 10 percent, and the soy beverages that vegan activists weirdly want in school lunches declined 8 percent. Even the once-Next-Big-Thing, oats, only rose 1.4 percent last year.

Sorry, Oatly – the froth has left your latte, and all that’s left is the drain.

Meanwhile, fluid milk – the real kind – keeps chugging away. To be fair, like plant-based, its consumption also declined, and like plant-based, its sales volume number starts with a 3. However, that 3.137 is followed by the word billion – not million, which is where plant-based is stuck – and the drop was 2.7 percent, less than half the rate of decline for plant-based beverages. That means fluid milk last year lengthened its lead over plant-based. In 2022, fluid milk had 89.9 percent of the pie. In 2023, it rose to 90.3 percent.

Beyond the overall number, fluid milk had more good news. Sales of whole milk, the most popular variety (and the one we need back in schools), rose last year, and lactose-free milk – the one tailor-made for people with dairy sensitivities – jumped 6.7 percent to 239.2 million gallons. With that, lactose-free milk surpassed almonds; it’s now a bigger category on its own than any plant-based alternative.

(You’ll hear a lot about that in the next year. We’ll make certain of it.)

The idea that milk was losing market share because consumers were turning to plant-based alternatives was always off-base. Now, it’s just a lie. And the decline of plant-based beverage isn’t likely to be an aberration: Once the initial hype is gone, and the sustainability claims are debunked, and the nutrition fallacies are exposed, what, exactly, does over-processed sugar water have going for it?

Oh, right, their misleading labels.

For now.

NMPF Leads China Letter Urging Trade Tension De-escalation

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

NMPF signed and helped lead outreach for signatories on a Dec. 12 letter to the U.S. House of Representatives’ Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party that argued against escalating trade tensions with China.

In its report released shortly thereafter on fortifying the American economy to compete with China, the Committee refrained from calling for a complete repeal of China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status – a decision that would have serious repercussions for U.S. dairy farmers.

Since Congress first granted China PNTR status in 2000, Chinese demand for U.S. agricultural exports has rapidly grown. China now purchases 19% of America’s food and agriculture exports and is the third largest export destination for U.S. dairy products. The letter warns of the potential fallout from PNTR revocation, citing as an example Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products after the U.S. imposition of Section 232 and 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. Those retaliatory tariffs led to a significant reduction in U.S. dairy exports to China.

While the final select committee report stops short of calling for outright revocation of China’s PNTR status, the recommendations urge Congress to move China to a “new tariff column” to decrease reliance on Chinese imports and develop U.S. leverage to address trade issues.

NMPF strongly opposes increased tariffs on Chinese imports that could invite additional retaliatory measures against U.S. dairy and agricultural exports – a message that NMPF continues to highlight on Capitol Hill as the select committee’s recommendations are considered for further action.

Iowa Dairy Farmers to Lead National Young Cooperators Program in 2024

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

Iowa dairy farmers and Prairie Farms, Inc. member-owners Hannah and Matthew Lansing were elected by their peers to serve as chairpersons of the National Young Cooperators (YC) Program in 2024.

The pair will steer the program toward its mission by providing key information and making recommendations on topics and activities of interest to young dairy leaders, representing NMPF and the YC Program at events and meetings throughout the year and reporting progress to the NMPF Board of Directors.

Together with Hannah’s grandparents, Hannah and Matthew milk 1,100 cows and farm more than 5,000 acres at Blue Hyll Dairy in Clinton, IA. The Lansings say they are enthusiastic about the opportunity and look forward to “continuing to grow as individuals by learning from others and sharing ideas on how we can all work together to become better advocates for dairy while improving our operations,” Matthew Lansing said.

Ohio dairy farmer Karl Wedemeyer was elected to serve as vice chairperson Karl milks 200 Jerseys and farms 80 acres in partnership with his parents and brother at White Diamond Farm in La Rue, Ohio. He is a member-owner of Dairy Farmers of America, and currently serves on the cooperative’s area resolutions and corporate resolutions committees.

The National YC Program has provided training and leadership development opportunities to beginning dairy farmers for more than 70 years, with a mission to provide producers with the education, tools and resources they need to improve their leadership skills, profitability and resilience through year-round virtual and in-person programming. Click here to stay up to date on program activities.

NMPF Secures Bipartisan Support for House Feed Additive Legislation

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

NMPF built on its work to spur approval of enteric methane-reducing animal feed ingredients by securing bipartisan sponsors for the Innovative FEED Act in the House of Representatives. The House bill was introduced Dec. 7 by Representatives Greg Pence, R-IN, Kim Schrier, D-WA, Jim Baird, R-IN, and Angie Craig, D-MN.

Like its Senate counterpart, the House measure would give the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the ability to review and approve animal feed ingredients using the agency’s Food Additive Petition pathway. This approach would allow FDA to review animal feed additives, which are not drugs, in a more efficient manner that would preserve animal, human, and environmental safety. Doing so would better position U.S. dairy farmers to act quickly and proactively to reduce enteric methane emissions and maintain global competitiveness. Products like Elanco’s Bovaer, or 3-NOP, can reduce enteric methane emissions by as much as 30 percent, making them poised to play a key role in dairy’s voluntary, producer-led sustainability efforts once approved.

The Innovative FEED Act was adopted by the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee on June 15 by an overwhelming 19-2 vote. The House measure already has meaningful bipartisan support from members of the Energy & Commerce Committee, which oversees FDA-related policy. NMPF looks forward to working with its congressional champions and stakeholder partners to enact this bill into law early in 2024.

2023 CWT-Assisted Export Sales Totaled 107.7 Million Pounds as Category Volumes Rise

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

CWT-assisted dairy product sales contracts in 2023 totaled 58.4 million pounds of American-type cheese, 1.1 million pounds of butter, 46,000 pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 9.1 million pounds of cream cheese and 39.0 million pounds of whole milk powder. This brings the total milk equivalent for the year to 922.1 million pounds on a milkfat basis, equal to 107.7 million pounds on a product volume basis. Product destinations include Aisa, Central America, the Caribbean, Middle East-North Africa, Oceania and South America.

Apart from cheese, all CWT supported products increased sales volumes through the program in 2023. Notably, CWT-assisted butter sales rose 73% and whole milk powder gained 27%. CWT supported sales also reached more countries than the year before – helping more consumers around the world access high-quality, U.S. dairy products.

CWT member cooperatives secured 55 contracts in December, adding 12.4 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 20,000 pounds of anhydrous milkfat, and 827,000 pounds of cream cheese to CWT-assisted sales in 2023. In milk equivalent, this is equal to 121.3 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis. These products will go to customers in Asia, Middle East-North Africa, Oceania and South America and will be shipped from December 2023 through May 2024.

Exporting dairy products is critical to the viability of dairy farmers and their cooperatives across the country. Whether or not a cooperative is actively engaged in exporting cheese, butter, anhydrous milkfat, cream cheese, or whole milk powder, moving products into world markets is essential. CWT provides a means to move domestic dairy products to overseas markets by helping to overcome U.S. dairy’s trade disadvantages.

The amounts of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT will pay export assistance to the bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by the submission of the required documentation.

November DMC Margin Barely Tops $9.50 for the First Time in 2023

Posted on by Theresa Sweeney

The November margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program inched up $0.14/cwt from a month earlier to $9.58/cwt, marking its first time in 2023 above the maximum $9.50/cwt Tier 1 coverage level.

The monthly change was a product of modest price movements. The all-milk price rose $0.10/cwt to $21.70/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula dropped $0.04/cwt to $12.12/cwt of milk. There was a bit more drama inside the DMC feed cost formula, with a $0.35/cwt increase in the soybean meal price factor slightly more than offset by a combined drop in the prices of corn and premium alfalfa hay. During the first ten months of this year, the average monthly change, plus or minus, in the margin was $1.22/cwt, the average monthly change in the all-milk price was $1.15/cwt and the average monthly change in the DMC feed cost was $0.37/cwt.

With one more month in to be reported for last year, the 2023 average margin is on track to average about $6.80/cwt, which would be the second-lowest margin for the DMC and its predecessor Margin Protection Program (MPP), just above 2021’s average DMC margin of $6.70/cwt. The end-of year futures prices indicated the margins would average about $8.60/cwt during January-September this year but improve during the fourth quarter to average about $9.10/cwt for the year.