Happy Thanksgiving! There’s Plenty of Butter

First, the bad news (for consumers): Heading into the holiday baking season, butter prices are, indeed at an all-time high. That’s for a few reasons. The biggest one is simple demand. Americans love butter, with the highest per capita consumption since the 1960s leading to the highest overall demand ever for the nation’s pre-eminent spread and ubiquitous baking ingredient. Overseas markets are also getting in on the act, with another record year for dairy trade possible in 2022.

Meanwhile, butter supplies haven’t, as of yet, been able to keep up with that demand enough to stabilize prices. That’s especially been the case in the past couple months, when retailers traditionally stock up in anticipation of the holidays. And of course, once you get past the actual cost of making butter itself and then add transportation, packaging, labor, and all the other the costs that are making everything else more expensive too, you have a recipe for record butter prices on the grocery shelf. And that’s making consumers (and media) notice.

But are higher prices the same thing as a “shortage”? We posit, not. Are store shelves empty? There’s always some one-off instances somewhere, but with those exceptions, no. Are crowds of consumers lining up for blocks outside local supermarkets to buy out rationed supplies, like early-COVID toilet paper? (Everyone stand six feet apart, please!) No again. And is anyone who wants to buy butter currently being deprived of anything other than $5 should they choose a four-pack, maybe a little extra if it’s extra-creamy European Style?!?? (And often less is you catch a good sale.)

That’s three strikes, and still, no one’s out of butter.

It’s easy to understand the concern: Butter is, after all, nature’s most perfect sandwich spread, the ingredient that makes a top-quality croissant worthy of a nasal-sounding French pronunciation. And even with all this, the underlying concern that’s fueled the “shortage” worries is itself showing signs of fading. Milk production is on the rise again, and with that, butter futures traded on commodities markets are declining. While some product prices rise and stay that way, butter goes up and down. Take a look at this chart — a dozen years of butter-price history that includes both the value of butterfat to a farmer (blue line) and the cost at the grocery store (orange line). See how they move together – and see where the blue line’s expected to go in 2023.



“What goes up, must come down” applies to butter. Production chases prices, and eventually higher production pushes prices down. That’s not always so great for farmers, by the way – and one nice thing for them about current pricing is that it’s helping farmers smooth out a challenging few years and rebuild the balance sheets they need to thrive. So be patient if you’re feeling sticker shock, and in the meantime, feel good that you’re helping a farmer.

But above all, don’t feel like you’re at risk of a butterless Christmas. The food chain, and the law of supply and demand, are ensuring that doesn’t happen. The holidays would be less happy without butter, but it just ain’t gonna happen. So Happy Thanksgiving. And here’s to, um, butter days ahead.

Dairy Defined: Despite Disruptions, Dairy Keeps Going, and Growing

Another year, another flavor of COVID-related disruptions, this time the Omicron variant that’s spreading rapidly and disrupting schools and workplaces. But it isn’t 2020 all over again – too many lessons learned, too much resilience has been built up to see a full return to the massive economic and social dislocations of the past.

That’s especially true in dairy, where, despite all the marketplace challenges, demand has only kept growing.

The data don’t lie: Per-capita dairy consumption in the U.S. has been growing and is at the highest levels since 1960. Exports in 2021 are on pace for a record. We already knew that. Now, with last year’s retail sales data available, we can see that 2020’s gains in grocery-store purchases weren’t just a rechanneling of lost school and restaurant business toward at-home consumption. By comparing 2021 with 2019, we can see that dairy’s gains are built to last, according to data from industry researcher IRI.

Cheese is up. Butter, up. Yogurt and sour cream, up. Fluid milk declined as consumers shift toward dairy in other forms, but even that category had bright spots. Because grocery-store milk prices have increased, actual fluid-milk revenues rose nearly $900 million over the past two years. That’s actually a bigger gain than plant-based beverages, which saw sales of their more-expensive products rise only $513 million.

And fluid’s decline wasn’t uniform across all categories: Whole milk consumption increased 0.5 percent over the past two years and is now well-established as the most popular variety of conventional milk, showing that fluid milk is more popular when it tastes more like milk.

The facts show it, once again: Dairy is alive, well and growing. The products dairy farmers and cooperatives labor to create every day are only increasing in importance to U.S. consumers, and even more so worldwide. The trend is so consistent that restating it is almost becoming tiring to say.

But it’s 2022. Being tired doesn’t mean you stop.