The Informa Economics review of the National Milk Producer Federation’s Foundation for the Future dairy policy proposal was extremely limited in its scope and failed to take into consideration how producers would have cut their milk production in response to a reduction in their milk checks, according to a new analysis by NMPF relf.org/fileseased on Wednesday.

The NMPF analysis of the processor-funded Informa study shows that under the Dairy Market Stabilization program, dairy farmers would have received at least $3 billion more revenue had the stabilization program been in place in 2009. That finding is corroborated by a separate, new analysis done by Dr. Scott Brown at the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

NMPF has proposed a series of new programs for the U.S. dairy industry as part of itsFoundation for the Future dairy policy package, including the Dairy Market Stabilization Program (DMSP). That program is designed to reduce dramatic swings in market conditions that ultimately result in negative margins, such as those experienced by dairy farmers in 2009. The DMSP is activated only when margins become compressed, due to low milk prices or high feed costs. When they do, the program reduces the amount that farmers are paid, to encourage them to temporarily reduce their milk marketings. That, in turn, results in increased producer margins. The money collected under the DMSP is to be used to stimulate demand, through product purchases.

In January, Informa Economics issued a report, commissioned by the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), asserting that the Dairy Market Stabilization program, had it been in place in between 2000 and 2009, would have reduced farmers’ pay prices by $626 million (with $390 million of that total in 2009 alone). However, the Informa study made no attempt to estimate how producers would have altered their milk output, or how cheese purchases would have helped producer incomes, had the program been active during that period. Had it done so, the study would have found that the DMSP program would ultimately have increased total farm revenue, according to NMPF.

“The purpose of the Informa study was transparent. Its sole intent was to pit producer against producer, in region by region, by focusing on the differences in the total dollar reductions producers in various states would have experienced,” said Jerry Kozak, President and CEO of NMPF. “But the Dairy Market Stabilization Program treats all producers equitably; they are all subject to the same required production reduction percentages.”

In addition, the Informa report was incredibly one-dimensional, in that “it didn’t make any effort to acknowledge that when pricing signals are bad, farmers react fairly quickly,” said Kozak. “Real-world experience tells us that farmers respond to incentives and penalties, like all rational economic actors. If they know they’ll get paid less for their milk in the next month or two, they’ll act accordingly. But you won’t find any acknowledgment of that reality in the Informa study.”

In fact, the Informa report briefly admits that “it’s likely that farmers…will try to limit production” during months when the program is active, but then the report says that “it’s nearly impossible to say exactly what the impact on milk production will be.” In essence, it only applied the structure of the DMSP plan on activities that had already occurred, without any modeling of how people would have responded, according to Kozak.

In order to present a dynamic model of how the Market Stabilization program would actually affect milk production, NMPF’s Vice President for Economic Policy, Dr. Peter Vitaliano, estimated the behavior of dairy producers during the months when the program would have been triggered in the past two years. NMPF’s own econometric analysis shows that had the DMSP program been in place in 2009, the average U.S. all-milk price would have been $1.90/cwt. higher during 2009, raising farm revenue by $3 billion.

NMPF’s assessment is corroborated by an independent analysis of the entire Foundation for the Future program, prepared Dr. Scott Brown, of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. His report, located on the FAPRI website, found that producers would have received an increase of $3.4 billion in cash receipts as the DMSP program would have kicked in during 2009, reducing milk output and ultimately bolstering prices.

The CWT Export Assistance program provided assistance in February to four CWT member cooperatives selling 11.2 million pounds of Cheddar and Monterey Jack cheese to 10 countries on four continents. The product is scheduled to be shipped from March through June 2011. Add to that the 22.7 million pounds of CWT-assisted 2010 cheese sales scheduled to be shipped in the first six months of 2011, and the Export Assistance program will be making a significant contribution to expanding overseas sales.

The 52 million pounds of cheese exports assisted by CWT and shipped in 2010 account for 13.6% of total U.S. cheese shipments. The 17 million pounds of butterfat (in the form of butter and anhydrous milk fat) CWT assisted and shipped in 2010 equaled 14.1% of total butterfat exports. These CWT sales produced an additional $398 million of revenue, adding an average of 18 cents per hundredweight to U.S. producers’ milk checks in 2010.

Some producers have questioned why CWT provides export assistance when the cheese price is $2.00 a pound. The purpose of CWT is to help maintain the role of the U.S. as a consistent, reliable exporter of value-added dairy products, which is not a role that American suppliers have played historically. In the past, the tendency of U.S. manufacturers was to export only what the domestic market would not absorb. By 2008, the export arena became a major buyer of U.S. milk solids, with total sales of 11%.

In 2009, a combination of factors resulted in U.S. dairy product exports dropping 15.5%, the equivalent of 1.7% of total U.S. milk solids produced. However, it was in products that most impact producer milk prices where the biggest drops occurred – cheese exports down 50 million pounds, butter exports down 126 million pounds, and skim milk powder (protein standardized nonfat powder) down 314 million pounds.

In order to prevent a re-occurrence of 2009 in the coming year, CWT must continue to assist U.S. cheese sales in the world marketplace. When the participation in CWT reaches the 75% level necessary for the 2¢ assessment to begin, CWT will be able to add to the products receiving export assistance and maintain U.S. dairy producers’ world market share and reasonable margins.