CEO's Corner:
Dairy Maintains Momentum Through Turbulence
August 4, 2025
It doesn’t really need to be said, because evidence is everywhere. But it’s worth repeating, in light of how easy it is to lose focus among turbulence in labor, trade and politics: Dairy’s future is incredibly bright.
Any skepticism toward that idea can quickly be countered with about 10 billion reasons. That’s the dollar amount of investments in new dairy processing capacity that’s coming online between 2023 and 2026, according to an NMPF analysis. Ultimately, these investments are an investment in the U.S. dairy farmer.
From Washington state to Georgia, manufacturers are placing their bets on increased consumer demand for dairy products. State-of-the-art facilities are promising to put affordable, nutritious dairy foods on store shelves and dinner plates in the United States and around the world. The processing growth is creating new outlets for dairy farm production, a tide that lifts all boats across the industry.
And the realization that growing consumer demand isn’t just a forecast: It’s current reality.
- U.S. fluid-milk consumption rose last year for the first time since 2009. Milk’s market share versus plant-based imposters continues to rise (as if nut drinks were ever truly a threat in the first place).
- Cottage cheese has emerged as the go-to snack food for Generation Z.
- And per capita overall U.S. dairy demand continues at levels last seen in the 1950s.
All that is a tribute to the fact that, even with all the diet diversification since then, dairy remains a bedrock of American diets, accessible to all, affordable, and trusted. It’s also a tribute to the industry’s vision and how long-term producer investment in the dairy checkoff has encouraged innovation in new research, technologies, and products.
Overseas sales remain a bright spot for the industry as well. That may seem surprising, given all the headlines of volatility in global trade as the United States tries to reset global commerce. But it’s true: In 2025 through May, the value of U.S. dairy exports was $3.873 billion, 13% higher than the same period last year, when they were $3.422 billion.
That’s a powerful testament to the resilience of U.S. dairy producers and exporters who work around the clock, managing and building relationships that are being heavily tested this year. While overall year-to-date sales volumes are slightly down, and Chinese retaliatory tariffs have heavily weighed down sales to that market, higher-value products like high protein whey products have grown 8% by volume and 30% by value year-to-date. Similarly, U.S. cheese exports are up 7% by volume and 18% by value when compared to 2024 exports through May.
Recent progress in new trade deals with trade partners such as Indonesia also brings encouragement that eventually trade waters will calm, with new opportunities possible for U.S. dairy producers as the turbulence ebbs. Thank you, U.S. Dairy Export Council, thank you NMPF member cooperatives, thank you, NEXT Program, and most all thank you, dairy farmers, for keeping this momentum going.
All this, of course, isn’t meant to give short shrift to the significant challenges ahead. At NMPF we are well aware of the workforce challenges facing dairy farms as a nationwide crackdown on illegal immigration disrupts agricultural workforces. Current trade success so far doesn’t mean policy upheaval can’t damage or reverse progress, nor that export momentum will stay the same if new trade policies don’t improve global access opportunities. And consumer confidence faces misinformation threats that only become more sophisticated.
But heading into August, when Congress goes back home and policymaking hits a temporary pause, we at NMPF couldn’t be prouder to represent a growing, thriving industry — not one that’s free from challenges, but one that meets the challenges at hand. Dairy’s momentum becomes our momentum. That momentum is significant. It augurs well for the months and years to come.
Gregg Doud
President & CEO, NMPF
