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Milk Price and DMC Margin Outlooks Pull Back from Recent Records

August 2, 2022

The average milk price in the United States dropped by $0.40/cwt in June from May’s all-time record level to $26.90/cwt. The Dairy Margin Coverage margin also fell by $0. 59/cwt from May to June, driven by a June feed cost that rose $0.19/cwt from the month before.

The milk price outlook for the remainder of 2022 has weakened in recent weeks, as dairy product price inflation has taken a toll on both retail and food service consumption. Since June 1, the futures-based average milk price forecast for the months of June through December has dropped by more than $2/cwt. Despite this, the futures do not currently indicate the DMC margins will drop below $11/cwt anytime during the remaining months of 2022. The DMC Decision Tool on the USDA/FSA website, on the other hand, is currently showing a much lower price forecast and a higher feed cost outlook, with margins falling slightly below $9.50/cwt during most of the months of July through November.