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MPP Forecast: September 2018

September 10, 2018

The July monthly margin under the Margin Protection Program (MPP) was $6.72/cwt., $0.65/cwt. lower than the June margin, owing mostly to lower milk prices. The July all-milk price was $15.40/cwt., $0.90 lower than in June, as the full effect of the retaliatory tariffs imposed by Mexico and China on various U.S. dairy imports rippled through U.S. domestic markets. The July MPP feed cost formula was $0.25/cwt. lower than the month before. Most of the drop in the monthly feed cost was split evenly between lower corn and lower soybean meal prices, when calculated on a per-hundredweight-of-milk basis.

Dairy farmers who signed up for $8.00 margin coverage at the lower, Tier 1 premium cost will receive a net return of $0.43/cwt. – after payment of premiums and sequestration reduction of payments – on their covered milk production for all of 2018, based on USDA’s MPP Decision Tool forecast calculated using the Aug. 28 CME dairy and grain futures settlement prices, shown in the graph.

USDA’s MPP margin forecasts can be accessed online. NMPF’s Future for Dairy website offers a variety of educational resources to help farmers make better use of the program.