Winning is Only the Beginning

The next nine weeks will be dominated by quadrennial horserace that is the run for the U.S. Presidency. Not even hurricanes, the football season, energy prices or the new fall T.V. schedule will prove to be much of a diversion from what is shaping up to be quite a close context indeed between Senators Obama and McCain.

One of the ironies of seeking the most important job in the world is that whoever gets elected will immediately inherit challenges beyond what any normal person would want to tackle – policy issues that demand urgent attention and resolution. Farm policy, for better or worse, is not likely to be one of these. Congress passed a farm bill just a few months ago, and it will be several years before the next administration needs to be positioned for a new Farm Bill debate. Nobody wants to revisit the Farm Bill after passing it three times!

But there are an obvious handful of other hot potato issues that either President McCain or President Obama will need to focus upon in his first year in office. All of these have ramifications for dairy farmers, as well as consumers both at home and abroad. Here’s the laundry list:

Immigration. Here, both candidates agree that we need to adjust our policies to reflect the reality that something has to be done to address the huge cohort of undocumented workers in our country, and the reality that our economy needs continued access to workers who fill jobs that many Americans won’t. As much as this issue needs resolving, it will be a messy political battle. It is the most important of all issues facing our agriculture sector.

Energy Policy. The surge in energy prices, led by $4+ gallon gas, was perhaps the biggest headline of 2008 because it affects everyone. The next president (just like all of the Oval Office occupiers dating back to Richard Nixon) will have to do something to confront our energy dependence, especially on imported oil. After 35 years, it’s obvious there are no easy solutions, and no politically painless ways to either increase supply or reduce demand.

Health Care Reform. The high cost of health care, for employees who have it, those who don’t, and for employers who provide it, is another perennial challenge with no quick solutions because our aging population, coupled with ever-more expensive medical technologies, ensures that there will be continued demand for more costly and elaborate health care options. As with energy, there is wide recognition that the status quo trend can’t continue. But what will take its place?

Taxes. Both candidates have staked out opposing positions on where taxes need to go to balance the budget and pay for the proverbial guns and butter of discretionary spending programs. Again, the status quo of large deficits and a growing national debt can’t continue. But there will be a big fight over who pays how much to keep the government from going even more deeper into the red.

Trade. As with taxes, there are clear distinctions between the candidates over the future of trade policy. But regardless of whether there will be a new World Trade Organization agreement, or any individual agreements – and regardless of whether NAFTA is renegotiated – the long-term trends affecting our manufacturing base, and imports from developing nations, are clear and not going to be easily altered. And regardless of who the President is, a Democratic Majority in the Congress is not likely to welcome many new trade agreements.

Entitlement programs. As with the issues of health care and taxes, the long-term – and for that matter, the short-term – trends are crystal clear: Social Security, Medicaid and especially Medicare are in financially precarious positions that need a definitive fix. The longer one is put off, the more painful the ultimate fix becomes. But as with all the preceding issues, there is little wiggle room beyond cutting benefits, hiking assessments, or a combination of both. And those costs will be high today, while the benefit only will be apparent in later years. That’s not a good outcome for a public policy system that is geared toward generating short-term results and putting off long-term challenges.

The common theme with just about all of these items is that there are expensive decisions ahead for which someone must pay. That won’t be an enjoyable process. Both Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain are positioning themselves as change agents who will reform the status quo in Washington. However, each will face these (and certainly other) issues that haven’t changed at all – in many years, in certain instances. Whoever is elected will have an unenviable to-do list in January.

National Milk Producers Federation

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